r/Mariners • u/r4dius • 1d ago

MLB Network discusses over-fixation on analytics

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTyW41dV2/

While the Mariners aren’t mentioned by name, they certainly feel like the canonical example (or counter-example, as it were).

The point that Leiter makes about the mental impact of a potential bunt I found particularly illuminating. As in: whether hitters are forcing pitchers to be multi-dimensional — versus enabling them to zero-in on avoiding the long ball.

Like seemingly everything in modern life, that which cannot be easily measured risks becoming invisible.

Here’s rooting for the Brewers to help incept greater nuance in the sport we love, and maybe even beyond Baseball.

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u/Maximus_2698 1d ago edited 1d ago

Analytics is not the Mariners' problem. You can't convince me that "analytics" indicated that the Mariners should constantly pinch hit for one of their better hitters with the worst hitter in baseball over and over again for half the season. Or that it was the right call to carry 6 starters and run a man down in an already short bullpen just so they could "keep guys stretched out". That's not analytics, it's traditional, old-school baseball based on conventional wisdom and vibes.

The teams that are still playing right now are all some of the most analytical teams in baseball. It's why they're still playing and the Mariners are sitting at home.

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u/stickymeowmeow 1d ago

Then why did the exact same thing happen under Servais?

I know the hot take of copium right now is to blame Dan for everything - and he absolutely was part of the problem - but have people completely forgotten the Servais era? The lefty/righty pinch hit BS was just as prevalent then. Jerry is on record, when asked about this very thing, saying he doesn’t believe hot streaks are statistically significant. The analytics say to play the lefty/righty matchup, so ignore what your eyes are telling you… that’s Jerry and the front office R&D. And that’s the opposite of “old school” baseball.

“We look at a player's projection based on who they are, not based on the last 10 days. The data tells us that a right-handed hitter facing a left-handed pitcher is always going to have a structural advantage over the long haul, regardless of whether that hitter is currently 'cold' or another player is 'hot'."

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u/Legitimate-Let-8500 1d ago

Baseball is an art, not a science.

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u/KingRalf13 1d ago

Nah, Vincent van Gogh would have been just as bad at baseball as Charles Darwin. Baseball is a beautiful combo of art and science, not just one or the other.

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u/Maximus_2698 1d ago

I'm not blaming Dan for everything. A lot of this is front office decisions. My point is that it wasn't just my eyes that were telling me the Raley/Refsnyder platoon wasn't working. The stats said it too. And their insistence on continuing to try to make it work for so long was not based on any analytics that I am aware of.

Jerry is right that a RHH against a LHP does have a built in structural advantage, but that's conventional wisdom and doesn't lead to a significant increase in production in every case, especially when other factors like normal age-related regression are at play. Analytics revealed that this particular platoon was not working and should have been abandoned long before it finally was. That's why I assert that the Mariners are not actually an analytically-driven organization.