r/LocalLLaMA • u/ThePrimeClock • 22h ago
Discussion Order M5 Ultra Now?
Just had a look at un-binned 256gb M5 Ultras and the wait is now ~18 weeks. Since you don't pay until it ships, surely there decent chance prices will have risen again before it ships or soon afterwards?
Interested to hear what peoples thoughts are on how the next 12 months will play out in the memory market.
2
u/AGuyAndHisCat 13h ago
My guess is memory will stay flat, maybe dip slightly. The oldest ddr5 is starting to be retired from datacenters soon.
2
u/DefiantDoorstep15 22h ago
Locking in the price now is the play if you're even halfway sure you'll want it. 18 weeks takes you deep into the new year and all it takes is one factory hiccup or tariff tweak for prices to jump. Not paying till it ships makes it a no-brainer hedge against the memory market doing what it always does when demand spikes.
1
u/ThePrimeClock 22h ago
Yeah that's where my head is at. However, the binned versions only have a ~7 week wait even for the 256gb version, so the only holding me back is whether it's the memory or the die yield pushing out the delivery dates.
1
u/princejain756 19h ago
capacity and bandwidth are different problems. a 256gb ultra gives you around 190 to 200gb usable after the os and per process reserve, so at q4_k_m roughly 4.5 bits per weight that is a 70b plus a long kv cache, or a 100b+ moe. tokens per second follows memory bandwidth, not capacity, so check sustained gb/s before buying for speed. on the price question, preordering locks the price and apple supplier contracts usually run a year or more, so the 18 week wait is more about binned 256gb supply than a bet on prices going up.
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u/naklitechie transformers 22h ago
Unlikely prices will rise. Apply likely would've locked in supplier contracts for a year atleast. Likely 2 years.
1
u/tetsuzankou 6h ago
most likely supplier contracts are locked
doesnt mean they wont raise prices for when contract needs to be renewed
1
u/naklitechie transformers 2h ago
they will. But Apple would have locked in for a couole of years. If not longer.
0
u/adeadfetus 18h ago
Remindme! 3 weeks
1
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0
u/putrasherni 19h ago
its a tough ask , i still think going for modded nvidia , b70 or r9700 is better
-1
u/rorowhat 13h ago
No, get a spark or strix halo instead.
2
u/ThePrimeClock 9h ago
Yeah I'm toying with 2x sparks but I'm more interested in intelligence per $ rather than tokens per $ at the moment.
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u/rorowhat 8h ago
Spark is still the way. Models keep changing, and Nvidia will always get the best support. Bet on the house.
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u/Vapornater 21h ago
As far as a price hike for those who already ordered, no. i dont see apple raising the prices on pre orders or like myself those who financed using apple card.
Ram prices will not crash imo until both anthropic and open ai becoke gpu insolvent