Ah, fall. The leaves are changing colors, the air is crisp, and the pumpkin spice is flowing. While the northern hemisphere is cooling down, our country is heating us as our news feeds are swirling, yard signs are around every corner, and our TVs are filled with campaign ads. It’s election season! Will these midterms offer surprises, or more of the same?

As with most midterms, they serve as a referendum on the current president’s party. With a Republican in the White House, Democrats are destined to retake control of the US House of Representatives. In 2018, the last time President Trump faced a midterm election while in office, Democrats flipped 40 seats in their favor. I would expect the same amount of seats to flip this year, but perhaps less than in 2018 due to mid-decade redistricting.

Control of the US Senate is much more uncertain. Most of the fervor surrounding some of these races (such as in Kansas and South Carolina) are mostly wish-casting on behalf of left-leaning media. I predict that the House flips for Dems, and the Senate remains in the hands of the GOP (however narrowly).

In Indiana, everyone is watching the Secretary of State race. Democrats are all-in for Beau Bayh, a nepo baby of former Gov/Sen Evan Bayh and grand-nepo baby of Senator Birch Bayh. What is most reflective of Bayh’s nomination is the lack of a Democratic bench across the state. What’s made this race even remotely competitive has been state Republican leadership turning a blind eye to the current secretary’s alleged corruption. The state party did the right thing, however, by swapping out Diego Morales for a more acceptable Max Engling.

To level-set: President Trump won Indiana by nearly 20 percent in 2024. As long as Trump is the leader of the Republican Party, Indiana will not flip blue statewide. Bayh’s most persuasive position is his promise to run an audit on office functions to root out alleged corruption. Very regrettably, in today’s hyper-partisan environment, corruption rarely moves votes. Again, Indiana voted for Donald Trump by a wider margin in 2024 than 2020, after he attempted to overturn 2020’s results and sent a violent mob to the US Capitol building.

Here in Bartholomew County, the GOP will squash any opposition. The county splits roughly 60/40 in favor of the Republican Party, so barring any major national changes, I don’t see much changing at county government. Democrats’ real chance at winning races will come in next year’s municipal elections, when only citizens of municipalities get to vote (sorry rural folks!). Separately, I could see the BCSC teacher salary referendum passing 70/30, as support for public education crosses party and ideological lines.

While 2026 will likely be more of the same political pendulum swing we’ve come accustomed to in the 21st century, you should still get out there and vote. If one thing is true in politics, it’s that it never stays the same (well, unless you live in Indiana).

For more on Indiana politics, check out my Substack!

Here are my predictions for the 2026 midterms:

• Democrats retake the U.S. House, with roughly 40 seats changing hands
• Republicans narrowly retain the Senate
• Indiana remains firmly Republican statewide
• Republicans maintain their hold on Bartholomew County government
• The BCSC teacher salary referendum passes around 70/30

I put together a longer breakdown looking at the national picture, Indiana's Secretary of State race, Bartholomew County politics, and the BCSC referendum.

Check it out on my Substack.

You have until 11:59pm TONIGHT to register to vote for the midterm elections on November 3rd.

What happened in Columbus and Bartholomew County this month?

Here are the highlights.