r/Economics • u/deraser • 11h ago
News US stocks sink as inflation gets worse
https://apnews.com/article/stock-markets-earnings-bonds-artificial-intelligence-704d3190f0fba2908df07c85f26346ec617
u/sereneandeternal 11h ago
Biden handed Trump a golden economy.
Trump could’ve just pretended to be president, golfed all day, and taken credit as the beneficial Biden’s policies were unfolding. Instead he fucks it up.
These are all conservative outlets praising Biden’s 2024 economy:
The Hill — June 11, 2024
“World Bank: Impressive US Economy is Powering the World”
The Economist — October 19, 2024
“US Economy: The Envy of the World”
The Wall Street Journal — October 31, 2024
“Next President Inherits a Remarkable Economy”
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u/Boozeburger 11h ago
100% Republicans have total control and have done nothing but give tax breaks to billionaires and made life harder for Americans. And most of America hasn't even seen what the BBB they passed has in-store because they planed certain cuts for after midterms.
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u/MTVs_DanCortese 10h ago
I'm sure they'll try to spin it that we all owe them our eternal gratitude when our HYSAs are yielding double digits and NVM that the national average for a gallon of gas is $6
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u/Boozeburger 10h ago
Or that the dollar had been devalued to pennies.
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u/Complete-Paint529 10h ago
Well, DXY is over 100. That's fairly strong. But this only compares currencies with each other.
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u/Boozeburger 10h ago
When the actions of a moron cause global inflation, that's to be expected isn't it?
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u/S_p_M_14 11h ago
Honestly that was my worst fear (I had a severe lack of imagination) and that people would credit Trump with the Biden Boom post-COVID.
I wish my worst fear at the time had come true.
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u/Fluffy-Rope-8719 10h ago
Now just imagine how the opposite will probably play out:
Trump has spent the last 2 years tanking the US economy, with many of the effects likely to come further online starting in 2027.
If Dems sweep the midterms right before the economy nosedives, the Republican branding machine will have a field day saying "see, we told you those damned commies are bad for the economy!", and the average American is probably dumb enough to eat that up...
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u/082426grateful 10h ago
That last statement you made, could not be more accurate. Our fellow Americans will parrot whatever their circle tells them.
Human Evolution isn’t working out as intended.
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u/Tammer_Stern 9h ago
The even sadder thing is Trump has not only ruined the current economy, he’s sabotaged future economy by scrapping the Inflation Reduction Act and cancelling offshore wind farms.
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u/S_p_M_14 8h ago
Yeah my concern after 2028 is that which ever admin comes in next will have to slowly wind down all the raw, unstrained, sewage that this admin has spilled on every governmental policy and legislation under the sun.
The US cannot turn on a dime and the rebuilding will take decades.
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u/Fluffy-Rope-8719 8h ago
The US cannot turn on a dime and the rebuilding will take decades.
And sadly the average voter will expect that these things can turn on a dime and will likely lash out by voting for whoever the new Trump is in 2032 (maybe even 2028) whenever their unrealistic expectations arent met
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u/Worthyness 8h ago
People think its just as easy to build up as it is to tear down. Clearly they've never build a sandcastle or a house of cards.
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u/Beginning_Ad_6616 4h ago
He also ruined important government agencies that will need rebuilt again…if…there’s anyone willing to work for the government anymore.
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u/theswiftarmofjustice 10h ago
They tried this in 2008. It was a miserable failure. Trump put out so much saying only he could “fix it”, and all he did was make things worse. Bush was destroyed for making fewer mistakes than Trump, and he deserved it.
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u/FJ-creek-7381 8h ago
Ikr happens every time - I was just explaining the cycle of Dems bad for economy/evil so elect GOP then they fuck everything up and there is a blue wave and then it starts all over and there is a red wave. My daughter said, well why isn’t there another choice or why don’t they change it. I said good question - and then explained how money controls everything .
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u/YurpeeTheHerpee 10h ago
Ukraine has proven we can cut off their balls with a few well placed drones. Take out their use of the data center.
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u/thewimsey 4h ago
Happily, I don't think this will happen; voters always hold the president responsible for the economy.
H.W. Bush was voted out after one term due to the bad economy, even though the house and senate were both solidly D at the time.
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u/FederalExpressMan 22m ago
People need a scapegoat. And it’s usually the guy they elected as leader. It won’t be Greenspan
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u/Emeraldw 11h ago
I think it is hard to understate how much he fucked things up directly and also how lucky he is.
I have said before that giving presidents credit for the state of the economy during their term is usually not fair. Economies go up and down naturally and any changes made take time. The 2008 great financial crisis for example wasn't Bush's direct fault and honestly there are plenty of other things to hate him for.
However, Trump has directly destroyed that general statement I have made.
The current economic fears are all his fault. Directly his. Tarriffs, ICE raids, corruption, wars? All him.
But he's also super fucking lucky because the AI buildout is happening under his watch. Without it, the economy would be an even greater dumpster fire without the tech companies spending actual trillions.
Because the stock market is up, the people with money feel okay to spend right now which is further helping the economy along despite the, for lack of a better more appropriate word, headwinds.
It's hard as someone paying attention to not feel afraid for what is coming once AI slows down.
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u/Own-Chemist2228 10h ago
Yup. Presidents are rarely responsible for the state of the economy, good or bad, during few years after taking office.
But they can tank an economy quickly. We've never had a president that was incompetent enough to actually do that in the past century or so, until now.
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u/SanchoPandas 4h ago
Agreed. The AI buildout has been responsible for like 80% of growth in the S&P for the last several years. When that bubble pops, the US economy is gonna get a reality check that it’s completely unprepared to weather.
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u/Ice_Solid 10h ago
Let me add a few extra things in my lifetime.
Clinton handed Bush Jr a golden economy.
Obama handed Trump a golden economy.
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u/Wolfclaw359 9h ago
In the words of Mike Ehrmantraut, if he'd done his job and known his place, we'd all be fine right now
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u/bladel 3h ago
He really doesn’t get the concept of Do No Harm. Trump could’ve put his father’s inheritance into low cost index funds (which had just launched when Daddy Trump died). Sat by the pool, sailed on yachts, banged supermodels. And he would be immensely richer than he is today*. His entire “businessman” schtick has been a net negative.
\This has been true without fully knowing how much he’s grifted from his crypto shitcoin.*
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u/USSMarauder 11h ago
Based on the 2024 growth rate, without the two market crashes Trump triggered in the spring of 2025 and 2026, the DOW would have crossed 60,000 last week, and the S&P would be around 8700
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u/Fancy-Atmosphere-701 10h ago
He literally could've sat on his ass like he did with Obama's economy. Instead, he wanted to play mindless dictator
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u/naijaboiler 9h ago
back then sensible people stopped most of his stupid ideas. this time, around, everyone is enabling his brain dead ideas
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u/MidnightIAmMid 9h ago
Yeah we were riding out the Covid crap better than pretty much any other country in the world. Stable, strong, growing. But like, also who cares about an amazing economy when you have a trans person who wants to play pickleball?
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u/CliftonForce 8h ago
Trump could have sailed to an easy reelection in 2020 if he had done nothing for Covid but stand back and let the existing Federal machinery work as intended. Dr Fauci would have gladly let the President take credit.
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u/getwhirleddotcom 10h ago
Yet there will not be any consequences for him or the Republicans. Theyll just let the Dems clean up while they poor all the blame on them.
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u/Maxpowr9 4h ago
When Democrats bailout Wall Street again and leave Main Street even more broken, they'll deserve the blame too.
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u/Hallomonamie 8h ago
Trump made note of $2b last year, that’s his only goal so I doubt he has any regrets.
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u/Doomsday_Holiday 7h ago
Everything the obnoxious Epstein orange touches goes to shit. He failed four casino bankrupcys. Four.
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u/Chemical_Famous 4h ago
It wasn't a golden economy. housing was basically unafforadble for many people, car prices were skyrocketing, rent was insane, and we had no health care. if you owned assets or were middle class, i'm sure biden was great.
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u/running_man23 7h ago
This is a wild and unhinged take to say everything was great.
Inflation and the debt were massive issues and continue to be. GTFO with this “this side cares about me and the other doesn’t”
None of these politicians care about you which is why they still allow insider trading.
Grow up and stop pretending
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u/Beer_bongload 5h ago
BoTh sIdES!!!11
Sure we can have nuance takes about the economy, would love that.
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u/old_ironlungz 6h ago
Nyet. Oh wait Yandex got bombed.
How do you say “no” in your Indic language? Please do the needful.
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u/Low_Technician9179 2h ago
They just printed the f out of money we had rampant inflation, produced nothing, letting china take over, it was not a golden economy lmao
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u/__Rick_Sanchez__ 9h ago
I don't agree while the Biden admin did leave the US in a somewhat good state compared to where it is now, the economy was already starting to suffer and it was already a soft oligarchy or very much corporetist state, it was not heading into a better direction for the people. Bernie should have been the president for thing to take a better turn imo.
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u/DisneyPandora 10h ago
This is not true since inflation was incredible High under Biden
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u/RashmaDu 9h ago
Inflation went down under Biden while the economy recovered, and was in a great state when handed to Trump. Look at it now.
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u/DisneyPandora 8h ago
This is factually incorrect, since interests rates rose incredibly high and grocery prices went up under Biden
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u/RashmaDu 7h ago
Right.
- What was the cause of that? Was it Biden's fault, or is it attributable to the recovery from the biggest pandemic in a century coupled with an energy shocked caused by another country's unprovoked war of aggression?
- How was the economy by the end of Biden's term? Was it getting better or getting worse?
You guys aren't sending your best.
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u/DisneyPandora 4h ago
Quick Question: Why do you blame Trump for COVID, but not Biden. Neither of them started it, yet only Biden gets excuses
Also, the economy under Biden was horrible since Interest Rates were at sky high levels and grocery prices were up.
What were Biden’s approval ratings on the Economy? Why was he kicked out by his own party if he was perfect like you said
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u/RashmaDu 4h ago
I never blamed Trump for COVID, you apparently can’t read. A different point entirely, but he did mishandle that too, resulting in the unnecessary death of hundreds of thousdands of Americans.
I said that the current problems are directly attributable to Trump, and that the ~2022-2024 problems are mostly not attributable to Biden.
What were Biden’s approval ratings on the Economy? Why was he kicked out by his own party if he was perfect like you said
I never said Biden was perfect. And whether or not he was perceived as having done well has very little to do with whether he actually did.
Biden faced the recovery from the biggest pandemic in a century coupled with a massive energy shock. He was responsible for neither, the economy suffered, but recovered by the end of his term. Then Trump shat all over it by being personally responsible for starting trade wars and causing the current oil crisis.
Try to think about it for more than a minute. It’s not actually that complicated.
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u/Werealldudesyea 10h ago
Why does this rhetoric persist about the Presidents influence or control over the economy? It’s always overstated and not tied to actual economics.
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u/Lemp_Triscuit11 10h ago
Is your argument that the Iran war didn't raise gas prices or that rising gas prices don't cause inflation?
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u/No-Cook-534 10h ago
Or that blanket tariffs on entire countries (imposed unilaterally by one man without the approval of Congress) are not inflationary?
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u/Hefty-Ambassador5661 8h ago
Don’t forget Tariff wars,
The President generally has minimal impact because their policies are usually more specific to industries and not the total economy but in these past two years Trump’s policies are directly impacting the economy. Tariff wars and Iran war
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u/Lemp_Triscuit11 8h ago
Two things that the president isn't supposed to be able to unilaterally decide to do on their own.
"Presidents can't really effect the economy" was a much more truthful phrase when we expected checks and balances to work.
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u/Werealldudesyea 10h ago
No I’m criticizing overpraising a Presidents impact on the economy. The hype for Biden on what is obviously a post-COVID bounce that happened in almost all developed nations is overstated. Iran situation is obviously bad, but we can’t look back with rose tinted glasses. People give Presidents too much credit and/or too much blame, when in reality the market is just the market.
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u/Lemp_Triscuit11 10h ago
I largely agree with the "too much credit" part (although who can blame someone for lusting for the days of boring but effective economic policy right now) and largely disagree about the too much blame part.
The market is, indeed, just the market.... until someone bombs it. Literally or figuratively.
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u/RashmaDu 9h ago
I mean, yes, the whole point is that the President doesn‘t have a whole lot of influence on inflation *as long as they are baseline competent*. Trump personally went out of his way to fuck it, that’s the whole point
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u/sereneandeternal 10h ago
Are you implying that the current state of the economy does not have much to do with Trump?
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u/tombrady011235 10h ago
Because the president has influence and control over the economy
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u/Werealldudesyea 10h ago
Please share your data, happy to read it.
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u/RashmaDu 9h ago
> President declares war on Iran
> Iran causes massive oil shock
> Economy is influenced
It’s actually not that complicated
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u/bobandgeorge 20m ago
What data? It's the stuff he does. The tariffs are his thing, the war in Iran and the oil shock is because of what he did, the trade wars are ones he started.
What data could convince you he did the things we all saw him do?
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u/Kelsig 8h ago
I want to know why this rhetoric persists. How could you not attribute this supply shock to the president lol
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u/Werealldudesyea 8h ago
Im clearly responding to a comment about Biden… and currently by most metrics the current market and economy are just fine sans Energy pressure.
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u/Scrandon 6h ago
Over 40% of S&P 500 companies are negative since the start of the year. About 25% of S&P 500 companies are down 10% or more.
Inflation is high, including core. The job market is barley producing any jobs.
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u/tombrady011235 10h ago
It’s unbelievable how preventable this was if people could vote on policy instead of voting on culture war. We have an entirely republican house senate presidency and Supreme Court and each leg of our government has contributed to this
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u/ADKMTBer 7h ago
I’ve resigned myself to the fact that the majority of Americans are morons.
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u/MasterMemeDealer69 6h ago
I wish I could come to terms with that fact myself. It’s just mind boggling to think this many people are morons and they vote.
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u/ADKMTBer 6h ago
It’s just a practical reality, and I’m trying to adjust course accordingly.
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u/BlokeInTheMountains 4h ago
Inevitability.
Monkey brains that evolved on to be scared of a rustle in the bushes are scared of scary caravan of others on the TV.
Monkey brains that evolved to comprehend a social network of about a hundred can not conceive of a billion let alone a trillion.
The modern world is complex. Feed them propaganda that they aren't dumb, it's that experts cannot be trusted. We need "common sense" based solutions.
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u/OpportunityPretty 4h ago
My sister married into a MAGA family. They are nice enough, but based on the way they speak about politics one can quickly tell some of them don’t have the critical thinking skills to provide more than “Dems are libtards” as an argument to vote Republican.
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u/Basicly-Inevitable 10h ago edited 10h ago
If you look at this rationally, the only reason for most of Trump's economic and international policy is to harm the US and isolate the country, for the benefit of certain powerful and rich groups that have that goal (for various reasons).
Whether or not he himself understands the motives is irrelevant. He is getting rich and avoiding legal issues.
But all the huge tech company leadership teams aren't stupid. There's a goal, and they're throwing billions into getting to that goal.
Right now, it's a strange alliance of different groups, because they all need votes to keep this train moving. But that could change pretty quickly.
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u/StormyPassages 9h ago
"If you look at this rationally, the only reason for most of Trump's economic and international policy is to harm the US and isolate the country, for the benefit of certain powerful and rich groups that have that goal (for various reasons)."
If you mean that DJT is a traitor for Putin, his mafia and their proxies, then say it. Ambiguity is useless, because the world audience already knows Putin is DJT's oldest donor. MAGA alone might believe that DJT and Putin are not stealing your gas money and mine, but they are a tiny minority. Meanwhile, the remaining 8.3 billion victims of their oil and gasoline theft know better.
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u/Basicly-Inevitable 9h ago edited 9h ago
Because I think Putin and his proxies are only a small part of it, but helped him initially, until everyone else saw the blatant corruption available to exploit for whatever they want.
The other groups now exploiting him have a dynamic interaction.
You're trying to simplify this, when that's not how economics works. It always gets more complicated when people see new advantages.
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u/StormyPassages 8h ago
I'm clarifying, not simplifying: The ringleaders are Putin and DJT, regardless of the size of their corrupt crime circle, its dynamics or the disastrous "economic" complexities of their traitorous Anchorage Pact. Phrases such as "certain rich and powerful groups" convey no information about economics.
Write what you mean.
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u/DisneyPandora 10h ago
I disagree. I think Trump is actually a troll and is trying to cause as much chaos as possible to make the world “entertaining”.
Also, I think the tech companies are actually captured by Wall Street. Wall Street firms control the tech companies with the destruction of Silicon Valley Bank which gave Tech Companies independence from the bad guys of Wall Street
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u/Basicly-Inevitable 9h ago
How does that mesh with big tech and AI companies giving billions to get Trump and Congressional Republicans elected?
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u/TheHomersapien 10h ago
Tomorrow's headline:
Dow sets new record as stocks rebound after yesterday's loss.
Thus making the chosen few huge amounts of money in the process.
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u/Kimballl 8h ago
The stock market is a free entity. If you think that is what will happen because it’s all “so rigged” you should be making money too.
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u/s0sa 7h ago
Believing the stock market is a free entity is beyond foolish
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u/Kimballl 6h ago
Can anyone deposit money and invest? Free doesn’t mean that it’s fair. All I said is if that’s how it works then deposit money and make it
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u/nutbuckers 4h ago
Can anyone deposit money and invest? Free doesn’t mean that it’s fair.
You're leaving out the criteria where government interventions do not exist or are minimal. Paid/privileged access to the executive power's news and updates sounds like a pretty direct intervention that creates information asymmetry for the participants.
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u/Boomslang2-1 6h ago
I invest as if the market were completely rigged and up is down and as if those with the most resources are massively corrupt.
My returns always outpace the market as a whole.
When I see hedge fund guys or leaders of large corporations go to the White House and meet with the president I assume they are working on some kind of market manipulation or blatant open corruption and invest accordingly. It’s quite profitable.
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u/DisneyPandora 10h ago
I’m so happy that Wall Street is being punished given that they are the ones who caused all this bullshit in the first place.
Wall Street captured Silicon Valley and is behind all of the AI stuff and high interest rates
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u/apixelops 8h ago
Good, hope it gets worse, hope it really ravages the economy in such a way that the foundations of the US system for wealth distribution are shaken to near collapse - finally forcing some much needed reform or reconstruction
The last few decades showed us slow iterative change isn't the way, it gets undone by reactionaries overnight, so let the land burn so better harvests can finally be had
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u/utahh1ker 5h ago
This is only just the beginning. We will see the long-running effects of war, tariffs, and diesel supply issues, for at least a year, possibly longer. I'd imagine 4% inflation is going to be the norm for awhile.
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u/Dr-McLuvin 9h ago
So core CPI year over year was only 2.6%. Seems like they just need to get energy prices under control and things won’t be that bad. Wonder how they could do that?
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u/Werealldudesyea 10h ago
YtD the S&P has returned about 12%, well above the 7% average. Seems the market is just fine. We probably are overdue for a correction but that’s just a normal part of the business cycle.
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u/Spooky_Mulder27 10h ago
There’s more to the economy than the S&P. Inflation, USD, jobs, global trading partners, oil, energy, farming, manufacturing. All of which are far worse rn.
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u/Own-Chemist2228 10h ago
Stock market performance is almost entirely due to AI investment. That timing of the AI boom is due to technological advances that are mostly isolated from policy, and would have happened under any president.
I mean Trump sure as hell didn't make
ArtificialSuper Intelligence happen.-4
u/Werealldudesyea 10h ago
Of course, Presidents have little say or effect on economic or market performance or outputs. I’m not sure what you’re getting at. Markets are gonna market.
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u/betheusernameyouwant 8h ago
Oil market disagrees
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u/Werealldudesyea 7h ago
Supply shock is supply shock, somehow the markets are working around it just fine, just not as efficient as we all are accustomed to.
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u/itsgreater9000 10h ago
The stock market is not the economy
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u/Sheerbucket 10h ago
This article is about the stock market
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u/Werealldudesyea 10h ago
I didn’t say the economy, I said market. The article is literally about the market…
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u/escoMANIAC 10h ago
Average is 10-11%
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u/Werealldudesyea 10h ago edited 9h ago
It’s 7% average cost adjusted. You’re speaking nominally, no one cares about nominal terms.
Edit: I’m downvoted for stating a verifiable fact? Reddit is just lost man. Used to be able to have honest discussion.
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u/Homefree_4eva 9h ago
So you’re comparing this year’s nominal return vs the long term real average?
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u/lemonylol 9h ago
On this sub? This hasn't been a sub about economics for a long time, it's just part of the generic network of political subs that recycle the exact same stories.
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u/Fermugle 10h ago
Look at a country like argentina with hyperinflation, future returns are indexed to inflation
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u/dust4ngel 8h ago
Seems the market is just fine
if irrational is fine, then yeah
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u/Werealldudesyea 8h ago
Market has always had a tendency to be irrational. Don’t fight the tides. It can be irrational longer than most can be solvent.
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u/StormyPassages 8h ago
DJT's corrupt AI bot bubble is bursting, inflation is through the roof, gas prices are through the roof, and so now the Dow is dancing like a mountain goat, prancing at the edge of a cliff.
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u/StonkSalty 9h ago
I didn't think the market would react this badly as it has today, and with another report due tomorrow, it's safe to say that this week is beyond over and probably most of next week as well.
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u/Actual-General-4953 10h ago
here we go.....fear time again.....the xxxx slipped .000000000000000001% from a record high......
Ok - cool story bro
I like how the comments know just who to blame.
Laugh my ass off
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u/Basicly-Inevitable 10h ago
Yeah.. the gas prices are all in our imagination guys..
We're ALL trying to figure out who did this.. what an unsolvable mystery..
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u/Actual-General-4953 9h ago
- Joe Biden (2021–2025): Approximately $3.60 per gallon on average, featuring a record-high annual average of $4.06 per gallon in 2022 driven by the post-pandemic recovery and the war in Ukraine. [1]
- Donald Trump (2017–2021 & 2025–present): Approximately $2.57 per gallon across his first term, with prices dropping significantly in 2020 due to pandemic-related demand crashes. [1]
- Barack Obama (2009–2017): Averaged $3.12 per gallon during his first term and $2.95 per gallon during his second term, which included a severe oil price crash later in the cycle. [1]
- 2025 Average: Prices remained relatively stable through 2025, generally staying between $3.00 and $3.30 per gallon. [1]
- Early 2026 Shift: Prices dropped to a low of about $2.94 per gallon in January 2026, before rising sharply in late February and March 2026 due to escalating geopolitical conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran. [1, 2, 3]
- Peak and Current Levels (Mid-to-Late 2026): After peaking above $4.50 in the spring, the national average has remained above $4.00 per gallon for a record number of days, standing at $4.36 per gallon according to AAA Fuel Prices and tracked via the U.S. Energy Information Administration. [1, 2, 3]
Looks like there is lots of blame to go around - mystery solved
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u/Basicly-Inevitable 9h ago
Wow. What exactly happened in Mar-Oct 2026?
Above $4 for a record number of days..
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u/Actual-General-4953 9h ago
Tell me you have TDS without saying it out loud.....yup
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u/Basicly-Inevitable 9h ago
So, you think the Iran situation has nothing to do with the current state of the economy?
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u/Actual-General-4953 9h ago
I never said or inferred that
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u/Basicly-Inevitable 9h ago
I said and inferred that, though. From your comments. Which is how people learn about other people.
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u/082426grateful 10h ago
Algorithms will adjust based on AI inputs learned from social media and trading patterns, we’ll go right back up again in stocks.
This same skill is not fully present in fixed income markets, yet. But, it’s being worked on.
Copy and paste to all asset classes.
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