r/Economics • u/OtherwiseCanary8971 • 15h ago
News Surging Inflation Complicates Trump’s Final Push to Sell Voters on Strong Economy
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/14/business/economy/inflation-economy-midterms.html100
u/Scary_Firefighter181 15h ago
Meh, maybe but also maybe not. I won't forget that thing after 2016 when voters were complaining about the economy being bad but the moment Trump came into power, the economy was apparently great. Even inflation has become partisan. But if we're being real, people are also bad at estimating the impact of inflation in their lives, so there's that.
Either way, its why all the talk of the GOP has been about transgender people. Doing everything from fearmongering about surgeries(nvm that most of these states where the ads are running banned stuff like that years ago) to trans ideologies in schools(whatever that means).
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u/Paceys_Ghost 15h ago
People got all worked up over the price of eggs because they thought that someone that they didn't like was responsible.
Now, the price of gas, diesel, and everything else keeps getting higher and higher. This time for a lot of people it was caused by someone that they unfortunately do like, so I'm prepared to be disappointed by my fellow Americans again.
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u/Constant-Plant-9378 11h ago
Trump will say the economy is great and they will parrot the lie, while also not being able to afford to fill up their trucks with gas and adding their weekly groceries to their growing credit card debt.
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u/MTVs_DanCortese 15h ago
How does it complicate things? All Trump knows how to do is repeatedly bloviate that EVERYTHING IS FINE EVERYTHING IS FINE EVERYTHING IS FINE to the 2-3 out of 10 people who remain interested in hearing him out
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u/Antifa-AF 14h ago
Why joe Biden, why? How can he still be controlling the world economy? It’s like he wants to destroy this country! Oh wait, it’s the MAGA pedophile men in charge.
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u/DonkeyTron42 13h ago
As Vance likes to say, Biden created such a mess it will take more than two years to fix. The highly inflationary acts like massive tariffs and starting a war in Iran had nothing to do with it. Neither will replacing Fed governors with toadies and having them lower interest rates to near zero.
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u/ResolveLeather 14h ago
Most voters don't look at the numbers. They feel the vibes. The vibe now is that things are more expensive now then 2 years ago. Even if inflation numbers were down, it would not erase the vibes of the last 12 months.
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u/EconomistWithaD 15h ago
Complicates it? 2024 showed that economic concerns are a huge motivator for the swing voters that usually decide elections. And there were lots of self imposed issues during the Biden presidency (and before, but voters are like goldfish) that led to the results we saw.
In all likelihood, this seals the outcome of the election. Because I’m not too sure any economist would label this economy as “strong”,
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u/-XanderCrews- 15h ago
I will never believe they actually voted on the economy. They just said it was about the economy.
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u/WantCookiesNow 14h ago
Believe what you want, but for swing voters specifically, it was very much about the economy.
If you listen to focus groups and swing (NOT MAGA) voter interviews, many of them voted Obama-Trump-Biden-Trump because they are consistently seeking change. Their economic situation wasn’t what they want it to be, so they voted for the change candidate.
Also keep in mind that most voters are low-information. They don’t pay attention and the only election news they get is ads on TV. So they hear Trump saying “I’ll lower grocery prices on day one”, think “that sounds good and I don’t hear Kamala saying that” and they decide to vote for Trump. It’s really as basic as that.
Again, I’m talking swing voters, not MAGA.
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u/RIP_Soulja_Slim 13h ago edited 13h ago
Believe what you want, but for swing voters specifically, it was very much about the economy.
Right, the above sentiment is what really fucks up the democrats over and over. They lose and rather than ask marginally difficult questions like "did we not message well on economic issues" it's "well, mostly uneducated white racists went for Trump, I guess we underestimated how racist everyone is, shucks!
Again, I’m talking swing voters, not MAGA.
Most people on reddit think themselves political experts but really don't understand electoral basics. MAGA is maaaybe ~20% of the country. Current Trump approvals are around 30% of eligible voters - you get a bit over 60% turnout in presidential elections, you can presume that's most of MAGA. Trump took 48% of the popular vote, that's ~20% that's likely a swing or less than enthusiastic supporter.
Now, there's gradients to it, so it's not black and white, but at least 5-10% of the electorate swings based on candidate appeal, and their number one issue is almost always economic in nature. It's that simple.
And still, dems are fucking up the messaging - do people really think things like Trump grifting, bathroom bills, trans kids in sports, whatever matter more than the state of the economy to these people? Steve Bannon said it years ago, but so long as Democrats keep talking about social issues Trump is going to keep winning. That's not to say these issues aren't hyper important, but allowing the republicans to paint you as the person who's platform is social justice while said R's pretend like theirs is jobs is going to keep the democrats losing over and over.
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u/thomasrat1 13h ago
They did vote on the economy, it’s just people don’t know anything about the economy lol.
The average American only watches the American economy, they don’t care about how the rest of the world faired.
I’ve had this conversation with a lot of republicans and I kid you not, the majority has no idea what happened globally during the Biden admin, all they know is that gas went from a dollar a gallon to like 3, and that inflation reared its ugly head.
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u/Scary_Firefighter181 15h ago edited 15h ago
It was about the economy but also that Democrats weren't focused on it because they were caught up in a "woke" cultural agenda, which again ties into the economy(the Kamala is for they/them ad, while bringing up disgust for trans people, was also about Dems not focusing on the economy because they were more intent on transing your kids or something ig). It was about the economy, the border/immigration, and transgenderism.
The fact that "transgenderism" is in the top 3 of what I just said there is embarrassing for the US electorate.
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u/seaofmountains 15h ago
It’s not a top 3 issue.
It’s a political tactic by the GOP. Your average voter isn’t going to the polls to vote on transgender issues, but if the GOP keeps attacking them as part of the platform, it forces Dems to respond as silence can be seen as tacitly agreeing.
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u/KEE_Wii 15h ago
Thank you! This is what republicans say democrats are passionate about not what democrats actually say are their top issues.
Also it’s almost like one party has plans for a lot of issues and the other has a concept of a plan that has been failing us for decades. Also hearing republicans say the president doesn’t control the economy after voting for him because he’s good on the economy breaks my brain… it’s either on or the other.
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u/skronens 15h ago
I doubt they listen to economists though, it will be however Fox News portrays it
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u/sonofalando 15h ago
The magats seem to be ok voting for anything even if it hurts themselves. This is the equivalent to extremism in mainstream politics in America. Their god child, their Kim Jong Un, their mustache man, their Stalin.
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u/LastNightOsiris 14h ago
The trump economy is shit, no doubt, but that doesn't mean the election is a slam dunk for democrats. The democratic strategy at the national level since 2016 has mostly been about saying "we're not trump", but that isn't enough. It doesn't motivate apathetic voters, it doesn't convince marginal swing voters, and it allows for all kinds of factional divisions within the party to alienate single-issue voters.
A credible economic plan and roadmap to address the crisis of affordability and the precariousness of the job market are needed. Ironically, the biden administration did a pretty good job of getting legislation and policy implemented to do just this. It's ironic because biden and harris failed to communicate this achievement to the electorate and instead got entangled in the "trump is bad" messaging and the mostly performative debates over various cultural signifiers.
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u/Willing_Activity_855 13h ago
Problem is if democrats wanted to actually do something about inflation pressures...well that would also be unpopular in some swing states.
1: tariff removals
2: jones act kill
bonus points
3: more trade agreements
4: permitting reform for energy infrastructure and stuff like rail (aka we have computers approvals should take days or weeks not years)
5: port automation
Whats funny with these policies if they did them all in one big massive explosive blast say after 2028 elections then the news cycle would dry up that first year and the following 4 years of that admin would just have the economic growth and downward price pressure. But you can count on democrats to utterly fail at doing anything with speed.
Meanwhile democrats in trifecta blue states cant even manage to get housing built in a quantity that would shift the supply curve enough to push down real prices.
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u/RIP_Soulja_Slim 13h ago edited 13h ago
more trade agreements
Trade agreements are good, but you can't just get up there and say that. People are stupid, so they're just as likely to interpret trade agreements as being good for prices as they are trade agreements being bad for jobs.
Specifically you need to be really careful about this in midwestern swing states - as many have felt the brunt of the overall decline in manufacturing jobs. You might be doing yourself a significant disservice, even though it is the right economics.
Spend a little time on this sub and you'll notice that a lot of things that are good economics are deeply unpopular among the less educated masses, regardless of political affiliation.
Port automation is another one, I'm not sure that getting Frank Sobotka on the stage to talk about how joe democrat wants to turn his job over to a robot is a good idea. Again, good for economics in the long run, good for productivity, and good for workers as it reduces manual labor and replaces it with other labor inputs, but definitely not a clear winner in messaging.
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u/Willing_Activity_855 13h ago
Spend a little time on this sub and you'll notice that a lot of things that are good economics are deeply unpopular among the less educated masses, regardless of political affiliation.
im very aware, just look at how people shit and piss themselves when new housing construction starts up.
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u/sargantbacon1 7h ago
Dude this right here makes me go fucking ape shit bananas. Everyone in America is insane when it comes to sound housing policy. A coalition of rightoids and leftists banding together to nuke apartment buildings and bike lanes into the ground in every city in America.
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u/Willing_Activity_855 5h ago
Funnily enough state level Republicans usually like shitting on urban progressives by forcing them to do things like deregulation of zoning and permitting. Happens in Texas all the time, happened in Montana
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u/dust4ngel 12h ago
"we're not trump", but that isn't enough. It doesn't motivate apathetic voters
democrats: "unlike trump, we won't put you in concentration camps and then ask a hostile nation to nuke you"
voters: "hmmm, nope, doesn't move the needle"
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u/LastNightOsiris 11h ago
I know this is (half) joking, but focusing on how Trump is bad isn't an effective strategy. Even though he is very bad. The democratic party needs to define itself in terms of a coherent policy, goals, and ideology and not simply as opposition to maga/trump.
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u/dust4ngel 11h ago
focusing on how Trump is bad isn't an effective strategy
given how school-books-will-have-a-chapter-on-this bad he is, this is simply fucking amazing.
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u/ICLazeru 12h ago
I agree, they have a serious messaging issue, and it really shouldn't even be that difficult. Just putting together a half-rational road map for economic normalization would probably be more than enough.
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u/Constant-Plant-9378 11h ago
The democratic strategy at the national level since 2016 has mostly been about saying "we're not trump"
Establishment DNC Democrats are nearly as corrupt, self-dealing, and incompetent as Trump. And they have viewed Trump as a gift, allowing them to advance the absolutely worst candidates possible, counting on them to win because the alternative is Trump.
And yet they still LOSE again and again.
That is how awful the DNC is. They refuse to learn the lesson and actually advance candidates to vote FOR instead of holding your nose and choosing the lesser evil.
And why do they do it? Because these morally bankrupt fuckers are all bankrolled by the same Epstein Class patrons as the GOP.
"Not Trump" has never been enough. Libs need to stop making excuses for them. We need to demand better.
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u/RIP_Soulja_Slim 13h ago
The trump economy is shit, no doubt, but that doesn't mean the election is a slam dunk for democrats. The democratic strategy at the national level since 2016 has mostly been about saying "we're not trump", but that isn't enough.
In fact, it's so not enough that the Dems have managed to lose ground to Trump several times because their entire message was literally just "well, fuck that guy".
Dems realistically should have been handed full control of everything for years to come, but they can't even manage to reach Americans in a meaningful way despite most people outside of the base being pretty tired of seeing Trump do Trump shit.
A credible economic plan and roadmap to address the crisis of affordability and the precariousness of the job market are needed.
More democrats need to listen to this interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pm5xxlajTW0&t=3049s
Obviously Bannon is an asshole, but he's both very smart and very tuned in to the real actual America that votes. He gets the voter plight, he understands populism, and he understands why Trump is winning. He talks a lot about middle america and messaging there. Democrats seem to miss this entirely, and continue to focus on the sort of shit that throws kids in to rage fits online but does nothing to resonate with middle america.
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u/dubblies 15h ago
Its actually easy. You tout the win and explain an offset for any losses.
Were winning big! The market is higher than ever before under any president before! Jobs are everywhere and our Super Intelligence is second to none in the world. With profits through the roof you have to wonder why the cost of things are going up and maybe thats related so I am demanding the DoJ immediately investigate consumer pricing for any illegal activity. This will be the Golden Age for ALL Americans not just a few! Thank You For Your Attention To This Matter! DONALD J TRUMP
And then theyll go on to only investigate left leaning companies and really rile up the base
Its like dealing with low IQ animals honestly. They even have pack instincts you manipulate into herding them.
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u/Individual_Limit_701 15h ago
What matters to families is whether their income is keeping up with prices even if the economy growing people can still feel off worse off when everyday expenses rises fast than thire wages that why inflation can be such a big issue before the election 🗳️
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u/copperblood 15h ago
And wait there's more! A LOT of the AI buildout is being financed with people's pensions. When that AI bubble pops, so too do people's pensions!
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u/DonnyMox 13h ago
VOTE BLUE! Remember to make it TOO BIG TO RIG! Now is not the time to get complacent. The future of the country may very well depend on the outcome of this election!
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