As the header suggests, we are looking for 10 more GMs interested in a VERY active group that decided to start a new league. CATs are: R/HR/RBI/BB/SB/AVG/SLG/ISO & IP/ERA/K/SV/HLD/QS/KperBF%/FIP. if anyone is interested, dm or comment here!

I run Nine Signal, a minor league prospect tracker, and this fall we went back through every Low-A to Triple-A season from 2016 to 2022 (no 2020 season, obviously) to see which numbers show up in the guys who reached the majors within three years. That's about 22,000 player-seasons, anyone with 100+ PA or 100+ batters faced at a level.

Each number gets a score from 50 to 100. 50 means it sorts the guys who made it from the guys who didn't about as well as a coin flip, 100 would be perfect.

Single-A hitters (about 1 in 10 made it within 3 years)

Splitting players into fifths makes it more concrete:

A few things that stood out:

• By Double-A, playing time is the top number for hitters (75). That doesn't prove the at-bats cause anything, but how much the team plays a guy tracks closely with whether he gets there.
• For pitchers it's strikeouts at almost every level. Strikeout rate, K-BB and swinging strikes fill the top of the list from Single-A to AAA. Stockyard Baseball did a Florida State League version of this and got K-BB% at 72; we got 67 for Single-A starters and 71 for Single-A relievers, so that lines up.
• Pitchers have had a harder time getting there since 2021. Double-A relievers made it 26 to 31% of the time in the 2016 to 2019 seasons and 15 to 21% for 2021 to 2023. High-A relievers went from 13 to 16% down to about 9 to 10%. Single-A hitters stayed between 8 and 14% the whole time. The timing lines up with MLB cutting affiliates to 120 in 2021, but this data alone can't prove that's the cause.

The part that didn't work

We also tried to build a "players like him" number: take a player, find the 50 to 150 past players at his level who looked most like him, and count how many made it. We built it only on older seasons, locked it, and checked it once on players it had never seen.

• First try (groups of 150, tested on 2021-22 players): passed for 0 of 12 level/role groups.
• Second try (group size picked per group, 3-year window, tested on 2023 players): passed for 2 of 12, Single-A hitters (it said about 9% would make it, about 10% did) and Double-A relievers.
• Where it missed it was mostly too optimistic: Double-A hitters, it said 34% and 28% made it. In a bunch of other groups it was close but no better than just using age or draft round.

So we're not putting it on player pages. We'll test it again once the 2024 class has had three years.

Happy to answer questions about how any of this was done or dig into a specific level.

Hey I’m looking to get a free 30 team categories league going. The catch is am I nursing school until December of 2027. I do have time to run a team, but I’m afraid I can’t fully run a league like this by myself. I am looking for owners and would like 2-3 of them to be co-commish. Looking to set this up on Yahoo. It would be a 6X6 category league, record based on categories won. Categories (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OPS, QS, SV, HLD, K/9, ERA, WHIP). I am currently working on a league constitution. If you would like to join lmk we’ll exchange contact info and we’ll get a chat going with everyone involved so we can hammer out rules before the season starts

12 team H2H each category dynasty league
R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OPS

II’m pretty new to dynasty so I’m looking to get some opinions from you guys about what I’m working with in my 5-man OF and if you think it would be wise to make any type of moves. The main thing I’ve been thinking on is if I should trade away Acuna. I’m a huge Braves and Acuna fan but I’m concerned about his injury potential and overall production in the coming years. Open to any and all thoughts or opinions on what you’d do if you had this OF situation.

C: C. Jensen
1B: B. Rice
2B: B. Turang
3B: M. Vargas
SS: Z. Neto
CI: R. Devers
MI: C. Seager
OF: R. Acuna
OF: C. Carroll
OF: M. Harris
OF: K. Tucker
OF: C. Rafaela
UT: M. Muncy (Dodgers)

B: D. Swanson
B: L. Lara
B: M. Arroyo
B: L. Bernal

MiLB: E. Quintero
MiLB: J. Tibbs
MiLB: D. Taylor
MiLB: J. Farmelo
MiLb: Z. Veen
MiLB: J. Ragsdale
MiLB: J. Parker
MiLB: B. Rincon
MiLB: F. Celesten
MiLB: M. Houston
MiLB: Jesus Baez
MiLB: C. Bonemer
MiLB: L. Adams

He announced it at a press conference at Yokohama High School this morning (Japan time). No club named. He said he's weighing a minor league contract against an American university.

If he signs, he's an international amateur, so it's a minor league deal out of somebody's pool. Sponichi quoted an NL scout who expects around $2.5M. The signing period is due to open January 15. The CBA runs out December 1, but in 2022 the January 15 signings went ahead during the lockout because they're minor league deals.

If he goes to college, he's in the MLB draft instead, eligible after his junior year or at 21. That's the road Rintaro Sasaki took, Stanford and then the Marlins in the eighth round.

One catch: he's still on the NPB draft list for October 22. A club can take him anyway and hold his rights through the end of March. Nippon-Ham did exactly that with Ohtani in 2012, four days after Ohtani said he was going to MLB.

He threw 156 km/h (96.9 mph) at Koshien in August, the fastest pitch ever recorded there, and he's touched 97.6.