r/CanadaPolitics • u/SaidTheCanadian Tourist season ends, election seasons begins. Same joke? • 3h ago
[BC] Leger: Conservative 42%, NDP 40%, Green 9%, OneBC 4%, CenteBC 3%, Other 2% (N=1000, online panel, Oct 9 to 12)
https://leger360.com/bc-election-2026-poll-october/•
u/SaidTheCanadian Tourist season ends, election seasons begins. Same joke? 3h ago
Here's are the "Provincial Voting Intentions (Among Decided Voters)" table from the PDF report (not paywalled) on the article:
| Total | MetroV | VanIs | RestBC | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | Men | Women | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BC Conservative | 42% | 41% | 39% | 45% | 41% | 43% | 41% | 47% | 37% |
| BC NDP | 40% | 42% | 44% | 33% | 31% | 38% | 46% | 34% | 46% |
| BC Green | 9% | 8% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 11% |
| OneBC | 4% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 4% |
| CentreBC | 3% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 2% |
| Other | 2% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
A couple of comments:
It's a huge divide of the sexes here. I expect a few factors are at play:
- More women in public sector jobs, including education and healthcare.
- The increasing education gap between women and men.
- The "problem" of socially left parties trying to appeal to men and demonstrating care (cf. the Liberal cabinet comments recently disclosed).
Another big area of trouble for the NDP is the vote outside of Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island. I think that Doerkson has been hitting the right notes here, highlighting concerns about hospital closures and related healthcare insufficiency, as those probably are contributing to the low approval away from the Lower Mainland.
Age is also interesting, but perhaps not surprising. Many older folks I know vividly remember the choices of the BC Liberals and the aftermath of their policies.
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u/Col_Leslie_Hapablap Conservative 3h ago
Can you cite your sources for the comments on public sector jobs (more women in them, but you mention only two professions)? And also on the increasing education gap between women and men? I’m not questioning your assumptions, just asking what you’re basing them on.
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u/SaidTheCanadian Tourist season ends, election seasons begins. Same joke? 3h ago
I've just read a lot on it, but some sources to confirm for you:
- 73% percent of teachers identified as women, 23% as men
- 63% Women : Representation in B.C.’s public service and general population, 2024
- On average, postsecondary campuses consist of 56.1 per cent women and 43.9 per cent men, according to 2022-23 data from Statistics Canada.
on public sector jobs (more women in them, but you mention only two professions)?
I highlighted those because they form a very large bulk of the positions, particularly among those who are not excluded from union membership.
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u/Col_Leslie_Hapablap Conservative 2h ago
I definitely knew they dominated those professions, but interesting to see that applies across the entire public sector.
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u/SaidTheCanadian Tourist season ends, election seasons begins. Same joke? 1h ago
University degrees are often required for public sector jobs. Given that for at least 3 decades about 57 to 62% of bachelor's degrees awarded in Canada have gone to women, one would expect the public service to be at around 60% women also. Again, it's probably a bit higher due to the greater skew among teachers and nurses.
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u/TheWaySheHoes Independent 2h ago
Those regionals aren't going to cut it for the NDP if they are replicated on election night. They will lose a couple seats on the Island, lose the couple they have in the Okanagan, and that loses them government before we even get into how bad south of the Fraser looks for them in Metro Vancouver.
The NDP will need a huge Conservative scandal and probably also a massive amount of Green voters coming over to them at this point. Or a regular polling error in their favour.
The NDP are still in the hunt but you'd rather be team blue right now sadly.
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u/Canadian_mk11 British Columbia 2h ago
Yup. The NDP's numbers on the Island and in Metro Van aren't good enough to overcome the Conservative lead in the rest of the province at the moment.
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u/SaidTheCanadian Tourist season ends, election seasons begins. Same joke? 1h ago
The NDP just had 3 of ~25 of the seats in the "Rest of BC", while the Conservatives had several in the Lower Mainland. Bad numbers in an area with only ~1/4 of the seats shouldn't be a fatal issue for the NDP.
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u/Godzilla52 centre-right neoliberal 3h ago
Feel like the only two things that can really save The BCNDP at this point are either BCC candidates continuing to make public bigoted statements and/or for a bunch of Green and CentreBC voters to siphon their support to the NDP to stop the BCC from forming a government (similar to the bump Redford got in Alberta in the 2012 election.)
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u/Haecceitic 3h ago
I think that time has come and gone. Mail-in voting is basically done, advanced voting starts Friday, and Eby was just a huge flop in the debate tonight. Doerkson barely even had to say anything, Lowan was roasting Eby all night. “Wages not wealth” is going to ve all over social media tomorrow for the Greens attack on the NDP revenue scheme.
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u/KvyatsLuck 2h ago
Mail in tend to favour the NDP as per the last election, gotta factor that.
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u/Successful_Ring_7356 2h ago
Mm I know a bunch of fellow BCers who confirmed over Thanksgiving that they mailed in that did the opposite. 2 were teachers, 3 nurses, a few tech folks, and 1 bus driver. Definitely factoring that in.
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u/Canadian_mk11 British Columbia 2h ago
If they voted Green, I could understand. Voting Conservative as a unionized government employee is legit shooting yourself in the foot.
Happy cake day!
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u/Canadian_mk11 British Columbia 2h ago
The debate was pretty meh. No real killer moments, though Lowan probably got the best zingers in.
IMO Lowan, by virtue of having the lowest expectations coming in and just holding her own, got the W. Doerkson, who is a political non-entity, remains so with me - Sturko in her minute of time had more personality. Eby was his usual uncharismatic self, but held his own and probably stabilized the NDP campaign doing so. At least everyone was better than Dallas Brobot.
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u/Haecceitic 2h ago
I feel like we all watched different feeds. Eby was horrendous and got eaten up by both sides Emily got a few digs in when she wasn’t shitting her pants or wasn’t stuttering from when the question didn’t perfectly align with her pre-rehearsed remarks, and Eny was floundering and fighting for his life. Came across as a greasy car salesmen pandering the same canned remakes he’s used since he called the election to justify everything, which no one bought then and won’t buy now.
This was Eby’s Hail Mary chance to break the polls and come out strong but, in typical Eby fashion, he flopped spectacularly.
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u/Canadian_mk11 British Columbia 1h ago
They all weren't great. I agree that Eby should have been better to give the NDP some momentum, but he wasn't exactly 2024 Rustad.
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u/Haecceitic 1h ago
That’s not praise lol Eby needed to kill the debate but instead was fighting for his life.
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u/Wrong-Pineapple39 Independent 3h ago
Please BC, don't vote Conservative. They will ruin your province like the UCP has here. They will implement things you cannot reverse.
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