Who else besides Danielle Smith is saying 'yes to the nine' in Alberta's referendum?

[u/WashingMachineBroken]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/analysis-danielle-smith-nine-alberta-referendum-questions-immigration-constitutional-9.7379412

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[u/WashingMachineBroken]

Questions 1-9 failing to win a clear majority (alongside question 10) would be devastating to Danielle Smith. She would have essentially created all this acrimony with the referendum for no political gain whatsoever.

[u/SuperLynxDeluxe → u/WashingMachineBroken]

The best way to kill an idea for at least 20-30+ years or forever is to do a referendum that's clearly not going to pass. 

This referendum just needs to look legit, keep the federal government minimally involved, make sure the separatists have their voice heard, but it has to be inconsequential to not accidentally Brexit yourself. They're not even voting on independence, they're voting on whether they'll maybe vote on independence. 

Then the referendum fails, and soft separatists move on along with the majority of Albertans to vote for the UCP again because Alberta. That's the political gain. 

[u/scottb84 → u/SuperLynxDeluxe]

This referendum just needs to look legit, […] make sure the separatists have their voice heard

That’s easier said than done. The separatists are already animated by imagined grievances, and they are temperamentally (and, in some cases, actually) aligned with the American MAGA movement that regards any electoral loss as ipso facto proof of illegitimacy. There’s no placating these people.

[u/SuperLynxDeluxe → u/scottb84]

The hardcore separatists might radicalize but they'll lose support as they do. Based on polls, the true believers are probably around 10%-15%, with another 10%-15% of soft support. 

As for the US, I'm not convinced of the "Donbass" approach theory. They didn't try to hide behind any democratic pretence for Venezuela, Greenland, Iran, soon maybe Cuba. Trump's annexation threats against Canada never had an asterisk of requiring legitimacy through democratic consent. The US have shown themselves to be a lot of things but subtle is not one of them, it's out of character. 

[u/DanfromCalgary → u/SuperLynxDeluxe]

It brings a bunch of vague and yet pointed immigration feelings right to the forefront . Every hick in the province is now thinking about a family of 12 laughing as they spend all day enjoying free healthcare and education

[u/interrupting-octopus → u/SuperLynxDeluxe]

I sympathise with this take, but the Brexit déjà vu is absolutely dizzying.

The exact same logic was forwarded during that referendum. "They'll feel like they had their voices heard", "it's just advisory not binding", "it'll finally put the issue to bed" were all apologist arguments made by the Tories. And look how that turned out.

[u/IndigoRuby → u/WashingMachineBroken]

This whole referendum should be treated as a confidence vote.

[u/Informal-Nothing371]

Smith might have killed the chances of the first nine referendum questions passing. When they were first announced, it seemed like it was going to fly under the radar. It was a referendum not corresponding to another election.

Voter turnout would have likely been terrible which would then made the election more about which side could motivate more people to get out and vote. I think this would have benefited the yes side as the no side would have to fight to get established.

With the separation question on the ballot, turnout is likely to be just as high, if not higher, than a typical election. The side supporting answering no to the first nine questions has also been very active in associating itself with the remaining in Canada camp.

[u/lenin418 → u/Informal-Nothing371]

First nine questions are also directly tied to her. Nobody else advocated for it, and it's tied to her direct popularity.

There's practically very little GOTV going on for the nine questions compared to the anti nine side. Say what you want about Stephen Carter, but dude hit a gold mine with the "No to the Nine" slogan.

[u/Informal-Nothing371 → u/lenin418]

Carter is a divisive character, but he does have a pretty good track record of success.

[u/Khrystine701]

Any Albertan who wants to separate from Canada is stupid in my opinion. I'm from BC, I want Alberta to stay in Canada, and Smith is by far the dumbest Premier I have ever seen