r/CFBAnalysis • u/basedonactualmath • 8h ago
Analysis alabama at tennessee has the highest playoff impact of any game this week, and the loser is in real trouble
i built a metric for my model called the playoff impact index. it measures how much a game is expected to move both teams' playoff odds. 100 would be a pure coin flip where the winner is in and the loser is out. the scale is fixed across weeks, so the numbers are comparable all season.
saturday's alabama at tennessee game scores 81.2, the highest on the board this week. here is why.
alabama (#7 in my ratings, 5-1) is a 61% favorite. win and their playoff odds jump to 79%. lose and they fall to 42%, with a trip to #9 lsu still waiting on nov 7.
tennessee (#13, 5-1) has everything on the table. they are at 26% playoff odds right now, right on the bubble. beat alabama and they jump to 47%. lose and they crash to 15%, and their sec title odds basically flatline (8% with a win, under 1% with a loss). their schedule after this is manageable, at south carolina and kentucky at home, which is exactly why this one game swings so much. it is the last big lever they have.
the rest of the week's top 5, for scale: 2. wisconsin at ucla (77.6) — ucla 66% to win, their playoff odds go 68% with a win and 27% with a loss 3. missouri at ole miss (72.9) 4. ohio state at indiana (71.9) — two huge teams, low stakes by comparison. both stay above 60% playoff odds win or lose 5. oklahoma state at houston (64.6)
full impact rankings for all 62 games this week, plus every team's playoff odds, are on the site if you want to dig in.