Well shit...

[u/Nervous-Variety-6635]

[u/ronweasly9]

The Westminster isn't going to allow another referendum in Scotland anytime soon and Wales simply can't leave .

[u/No-Championship-4632 → u/ronweasly9]

It is not about that. Breaking up UK would be incredibly complicated. Say new countries appear (England, Scotland, Wales) with corresponding central banks - what share of the external debt of UK would they inherit? What happens with the nuclear sub base which is currently headquartered in Scotland, do the nukes become custody of Scotland or England? North Sea oil reserves would mostly fall within Scotish seazone but are currently exploited by companies headquartered in London, would that continue or contracts would be canceled (and could Scotland afford to cancel them). There would be hard borders (and if Scotland joins EU, it would get even more complicated to move people or goods across the border) - but since Scotland and England were part of UK for generations, what happens to people that study, work or have businesses in the other new country? Unlike Yugoslavia where the more developed entities were highly motivated to split, we have the opposite situation in UK. That's why I guess it won't happen any time soon, the negatives vastly outweigh the positives and that holds true for all.

[u/King_Uni → u/No-Championship-4632]

Yeah. I believe (correct me if I'm wrong) that Scotland wanted to keep the pound even if they became independent, meaning they'd be under the monetary authority of an independent England.

A breakup of the UK would be a breakup in name only, with a lot of systems likely continuing despite the new "independent" countries existing.

[u/AntiKouk → u/King_Uni]

I think there's appetite for a more equal footing between the nations though. Currently both Wales and Scotland have their governments and first ministers but very different amounts of control over it. While the prime minister in essence acts as an English first minister too. Just doesn't compute. A more federilised structure is the way forward in my opinion

[u/the_lonely_creeper → u/AntiKouk]

The issue the UK has is that having an English Goverment would create a situation of dualism, as it would be effectively almost as powerful as the British Government. And that rarely ends well.

For some lovely historical examples, we have early 90's USSR between the Union and Russian governments (where Russia won) or the Weimar Republic with Prussia and the Federal Government (where the Federal Government won) or to an extent, Yugoslavia and Serbia in the 90's (where Serbia won, and in the process collapsed the country).

Basically, if there is an English government and it really disagrees with the British government, there's a fairly good chance that the former won't listen to the latter, and the latter won't really be able to make the former comply.

[u/AntiKouk → u/the_lonely_creeper]

Very good point! I'm for right to self determination but truth a united front on the world stage, foreign policy and military is a massive advantage over split ones. At the very very least though Wales should have the same powers as Scotland to self administer. It's such a weird system currently where non of the 4 nations have the same formula

[u/the_lonely_creeper → u/AntiKouk]

The issue, imo, and I genuinely don't know how the UK can solve it, is that there's just so much of an imbalance between England and everyone else. England has the vast majority of the poppulation, the economy, etc...

It's a bit like having a union solely between Germany and Denmark.

So you end up with people in the other nations feeling like they have no voice, which is what's causing the rise in seperatism.

But yes, Wales should, if it wishes to, have the same powers as Scotland.

[u/Evangilee2 → u/the_lonely_creeper]

This is pretty much the nail on the head, there is no simple solution to it. Wales would struggle massively as an independent nation and there isn't much support for it internally, they were also a large chunk of the exit vote in the EU referendum. Much of the economy is in London, not England as a whole and this is another point of contention for them internally. Scotland has a small deficit, and Wales has a much larger one.

The state of the UK is that a referendum can be held at any time if there is enough public support for it. Scotland had one in 2014 and voted to remain. NI is a difficult case and massively divided within, there is no clear winner.

If the UK was to split, England would be the front running nation as far as the world stage is concerned.

[u/AntiKouk → u/the_lonely_creeper]

Yup. It's hard to see a way to please everyone. But giving the other nations more control over internal affairs is probably the middle line that might work.  Equity over Equality in this case. As in the English/England only has the central government.

Debatable if you look at Scotland though. But I think such a big decision like leaving the UK should require a bigger majority than 50%. This is how you end up with things like Brexit where the majority now want back in. And I say this as someone who's not opposed to it from the Welsh perspective. 

[u/Responsible-Job-3897]

If only we had their problems.

[u/omora993]

fuck yeah let them collapse

[u/CantBeatDickensCider → u/omora993]

Why do we live rent free in this Albanian leg-beard's head? 

[u/OkWatercress6344]

I don't think anyone here cares

[u/HornetEqual8530]

Balkans:”First time”?

[u/GoddessOfAffection]

Why don't they unite and form the Republic of Britain? It sounds much cooler than England, Scotland, Wales, Ireland etc.

[u/InterviewTechnical13]

My money is on Scotland! Freedom brothers!

[u/Efficient_Try_9136]

Britons are not dumb and corrupted to destroy their Empire

[u/No-Championship-4632 → u/Efficient_Try_9136]

Their empire is long gone, the leftover (UK) is very unlikely to fall apart

[u/the_lonely_creeper → u/No-Championship-4632]

Don't say that. If I had to bet on a big European Country not being around in a century, it would be Britain.

[u/No-Championship-4632 → u/the_lonely_creeper]

I wouldn't bet on it.

[u/the_lonely_creeper → u/No-Championship-4632]

Ok, interesting. Which country would you bet on? The only other possible, imo, might be Spain or possibly Russia? Though I genuinely can't see Russia really falling apart. At most, some areas might get independence.

[u/No-Championship-4632 → u/the_lonely_creeper]

I wouldn't bet on any, can't predict stochastic events. But if I am forced to choose one, I guess that would be Bosnia unfortunately, I believe the probability there is higher than either Spain or Russia.

[u/the_lonely_creeper → u/No-Championship-4632]

Fair enough. I just don't think of Bosnia as a major country.

[u/P-l-Staker → u/the_lonely_creeper]

I'd bet on Greece lol.

[u/Evangilee2 → u/the_lonely_creeper]

It's so weird seeing the rise of nationalist "greeks" shitting on the UK this week, you guys really crawled out of the shadows huh?

[u/the_lonely_creeper → u/Evangilee2]

I genuinely have no idea what you're talking about. Also, frankly quite racist. My opinions on the UK's possible collapse has nothing to do with my nationality or ethnicity.

And anyways, how is it "shiting on the UK" when 2/4 countries are at ~50% (depending on polls and months) against remaining and Welsh independence has gone from completely fringe to a significant minority (10->30% over the last decade)?

[u/HatefulVenom → u/the_lonely_creeper]

Relax, you aren't getting the marbles back.

[u/Evangilee2 → u/the_lonely_creeper]

Racist lol, not at all. Sure I take your point, but I've seen a lot of Greek nationals shitting on the UK and calling whole-heartedly for it's dissolution this week.

Scotland have always been at 40-50% in dips and swings, usually when things change it goes down and when they're unhappy it goes up, crazy to think that. NI hovers around 30-40, also not unusual. So I'm not sure why you think there is a rising demand for independence, it is pretty much the same, you read one headline and ran with it.

It is illegal for either country to declare independence on their own but lets just assume they did, it would be very stupid to damage relations with your only geographical border neighbours, plus the myriad of problems that comes with independence. NI is a separate case and is heavily mixed, so I don't include them in this part.

[u/nemamkarmenisambot → u/Evangilee2]

swings, percentages, separate cases... seems to me like ingredients for balkanisation stew

[u/KostasN77 → u/Evangilee2]

That's a weird assumption. I'm sure it's also the non nationalists Greeks that don't like you, not just the nationalists!

[u/zzen11223344 → u/Efficient_Try_9136]

It looks like France is also facing collapsing, and Germany also ...

[u/OkCounty6760]

They've sown,they'll reap it...

[u/XhejsonVorhesi]

At least they won’t start wars

[u/Throwaway_thequest → u/XhejsonVorhesi]

Yeah, there were no wars, say in Ireland.

[u/XhejsonVorhesi → u/Throwaway_thequest]

I am taking about now

[u/Silly_Y33Ny → u/XhejsonVorhesi]

So are we

[u/Korisnikov → u/XhejsonVorhesi]

no war like there was no war in BiH, Croatia, Slovenia, Macedonia, then by foreign invades in Serbia (Kosovo) and Macedonia.

[u/Yavannia → u/XhejsonVorhesi]

UK took active part in almost all the wars USA did in the 2000s.

[u/XhejsonVorhesi → u/Yavannia]

I meant between each other damn it