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Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.

This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period.

Maybe use this time to read the wiki .

Posts relating to the "Is r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.

Just as I thought had lost my mind averaging down to 31 I have been redeemed.

Your markets are run by bots. Now your r/Asx_bets daily threads are too.

Read the wiki people.

Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting.

We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.

Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.

This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period.

Maybe use this time to read the wiki .

Posts relating to the "Is r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.

Your markets are run by bots. Now your r/Asx_bets daily threads are too.

Read the wiki people.

Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting.

We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.

Vulcan Energy (ASX: VUL) just released a positive update on its German lithium project, Lionheart.

They successfully tested a new well and, for the first time, managed to reinject the lithium-depleted brine straight back into the main rock formation (not just the fault lines).

The well performed better than planned — it can handle roughly 60% more volume than what they had assumed in their development plan.

Why this matters:

• It proves a key part of how the project is supposed to work long-term

• Reduces geological risk

• Gives them more flexibility to optimise the field as they keep building

Lionheart is already fully funded and targeting 24,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium hydroxide a year (enough for about half a million EVs), plus renewable heat and power, with first production still aimed for the second half of 2028.

Share price is sitting around $1.20 right now.

Not financial advice — just a clear, factual update. Full announcement is on the ASX if you want the technical details.

It's up 27% yesterday, no announcements, no nothing, and quiet as hell this morning with a grand total of 1 trade, and no backup in the depth re: why it's suddenly rocketed. EGL was once a small caps darling, and now it just seems to have turned into an insto pump and dump paradise. What gives?

Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.

This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period.

Maybe use this time to read the wiki .

Posts relating to the "Is r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.

I pulled up SRL on moomoo again because the chart is hard to ignore. But after a run like this, I’m more interested in what still has to happen than in guessing the next green day.

The Syerston feasibility study is done. There’s a conditional US$400m loan commitment, and SRL has proposed moving its parent company to the US and listing on Nasdaq. That’s meaningful progress, but the loan still needs to be finalised, the move needs approvals, and Syerston hasn’t reached a final investment decision.

That’s where I get stuck. The US story is exciting, but financing the project and deciding to build it are different from announcing a path towards both.

If you’re still holding SRL, what would make you trim or change your mind? A delayed FID, different financing terms, a cost blowout, or would you keep holding while the chart looks good?

Ok lets say hypothetically a trader purchased a couple metrics tons worth of soybean futures in anticipation for a price rise but unfortunately forgot to sell it on the open market before expiry because he is a complete idiot and has now been delivered soybeans to his parents house. I dont even really know what a soybean even is!

How can this person quickly sell these soybeans without taking a loss?

Your markets are run by bots. Now your r/Asx_bets daily threads are too.

Read the wiki people.

Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting.

We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.

Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.

This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period.

Maybe use this time to read the wiki .

Posts relating to the "Is r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.

Disclosure first (rule 7): I run DilutionLens, a free site that tracks dilution for every ASX company from the filings. This is the text-only weekly update you OK'd, not the shill post. Every number below comes from an ASX announcement (raise notices, Appendix 3B/2A filings, quarterly cash reports). No links, no picks, not advice.

One offer is most of the week. Twenty-five companies announced cash raises between Monday 5 and Friday 9 October for up to A$617.9M, and A$482.7M of that is the ceiling on L1 Global Long Short Fund's (GLS) 1-for-2 entitlement offer. It isn't underwritten, and institutions have put in A$100.9M so far. Without the top three, the other twenty-two disclosed A$55.3M between them. 15 companies halted citing a capital raise in five sessions, against 11 and 16 the two weeks before.

The week's biggest raises

The rest

Also AAU A$900K, WWG A$576K, CBY A$564K and MOM A$350K of convertible notes. SRN made a call on its partly paid shares; LSR (options offer), SLZ (entitlement) and GLL (placement) have no amount in the feed yet.

The dollar ranking isn't the dilution ranking

Each raise of A$2M or more, against the company's market value on 12 Oct (after the announcement):

Ballard's A$45M is 13.8% of the company. Cambium's A$9.9M is 62.5%, and it can't issue a share until holders vote on 9 Nov. GLS has no market value on record.

The halt conveyor

15 companies halted citing a capital raise: ALV, BM1, CPM, EGR, GLS, KZR, M4M, PKD, PMM, PRX, RKT, TOR, TZL, VRC, ZMI. Nine had raised by Friday. TZL came out with no raise: the placement of its rights issue shortfall "was not able to be finalised in totality by expiry date". Two announced this morning: BM1's A$45M, and CPM A$4.85M at 7.5c, "approximately a 24% discount to the 15 day VWAP", to buy a copper project. M4M, PKD and VRC still halted at the time of writing.

32 retail offers open

15 entitlement offers, 12 SPPs, 5 rights issues, down from 33. New this week: entitlement offers from GLS, PRX, TMB, CYP and SLZ, and BM1's SPP. MCO extended its SPP (capped at 1.8c) to 14 Oct, results due 16 Oct. The oldest still listed, AEV and SPN, are from 17 Aug.

Placement capacity, counted a new way

When holders ratify an earlier placement at a meeting, those shares stop counting against the 15%. The site now hands them back where the vote matches the issue notice exactly, and counts convertibles at their maximum conversion. The counts fell, so they don't compare with last week: 143 companies past 75% of the 15%, 89 past 90%, 18 have used all of it (last week 204, 140 and 31, counted before the change). 54 of the 143 have also drawn on 7.1A. This week LSR went to about 99% and OD6 to about 98%.

Overhangs among this week's raisers

ZMI's options equal 94.8% of its register, before the 180M placement shares. LSR's are 85.3%, GLL's 52.2%, and almost none of it is in the money. The in-the-money supply sits elsewhere: PHO 31.1% of its shares, ALV 13.6%, PMM 11.4%, TOR 10.6%.

Dilution risk across the market: 589 Minimal, 334 Low, 374 Moderate, 260 High, 185 Very high, 112 Not rated. About one in four rated companies sits at High or Very high.

Happy to pull the filing on any name in here if someone wants the detail. Next one Monday.

If you'd rather get these in your inbox, the site's Watch page has a free email signup - one field, and the link it sends turns it on. No URL here, that's the deal with the mods.

General information only, not financial advice. No view on any company's future actions or securities.

For a few years I've been buying and selling ETFs on the ASX, sometimes multiple times a day.

This strategy relies on currency movement and picking out ETFs that are trailing their NAV in real time.

It also involves closely watching the market depth of an ETF and trying to buy the bottom of the spread.

This approach incurs a significant amount of income tax, however it's also helped me with significant gains.

If $100,000 is invested and the market then trends up 1%, it's possible to make $1k in a single day on this basis.

Obviously it's also possible to LOSE $1k doing this.

Does anyone else day trade the ASX listed ETFs with a reasonably large amount of capital? Or are we a bunch of weak-kneed "Capital gains are bad" cowards over here.

Edit: the best ETFs to day-trade (in my opinion) are the ones that close overseas whilst open on the ASX, such as NDQ/HNDQ, IVV/IHVV, VGS/VGAD (yes I know this includes Europe but not much).

Your markets are run by bots. Now your r/Asx_bets daily threads are too.

Read the wiki people.

Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting.

We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.

Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.

This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period.

Maybe use this time to read the wiki .

Posts relating to the "Is r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.

Firstly, some disclaimers.

• Not financial advice -- obviously
• This is the essence of the way that I trade, but I am no expert.

I have observed within r/ASX_Bets that most people here swing trade, with the exception of a few people who day trade and/or scalp. Of the swing traders, I have observed four distinct strategies:

• Fundamental analysis/due diligence (not my thang)
• Buy the dip (see link for a discussion on the QFL trading strategy)
• Momentum trading (see below – breakout swing trading is a momentum strategy)
• Shitty retail adhockery (probably 95% of this subreddit😂).

Momentum traders aim to trade with the trend – what is going up is likely to continue going up, and what is going down is likely to continue going down.

Stage analysis

To trade with the trend, you first need to understand what the trend currently is. Stan Weinstein’s book discusses the four stages that a price chart moves through:

• Stage 1 – Accumulation – Institutions, market makers and insiders are accumulating.
• Stage 2 – Mark up – The market pushes up out of the accumulation zone and prices move higher with higher highs and higher lows. Retail traders begin to enter the market.
• Stage 3 – Distribution – Retail traders have worked themselves into a frenzy, but institutions, market makers and insiders are offloading.
• Stage 4 – Mark down – Price breaks down from the distribution zone with lower highs and lower lows. Retail traders often average down in the first part of the mark-down phase, but eventually capitulate and panic sell into the falling market.

There are variations on this, such as accumulation, mark-up, re-accumulation and then further mark-up, but this is just an intro so I am not going to discuss in more detail.

The breakout swing trading strategy aims to buy stocks entering the mark-up stage and sell before the start of the mark-down stage – capturing the move in the middle. Yes, you will miss the absolute top and bottom of the price movement, but don’t be greedy.

The attached chart for MEK shows my interpretation of stage analysis. You will see that I have noted a period of re-accumulation on this chart. The chart is drawn using a log scale.

Entry criteria

Without going into the detail of why this works (you can research that yourself), the filtering criteria are simple:

• Stock price making 12-month highs (set up a screen in Trading View to find them) – breaking out of a range bound pattern
• 150-day moving average moving higher – momentum is heading up
• Increasing volume – smart money has been accumulating
• Rising comparative relative strength (against an index, such as XJO) – indicates the stock is outperforming the wider market. Note that this is NOT the relative strength indicator (RSI).

Don't just blindly follow these criteria. They are helping you to find stocks that are beginning to break out of Stage 1 accumulation into Stage 2 mark-up, but you also need to look at the bigger chart picture. I am usually looking at 10 years of data on the daily timeframe. Only take the A+ setups. You can support this with fundamental analysis, but I really don’t delve into that.

See the MEK chart for what I consider a breakout swing trade buy zone. The volume and comparative relative strength are just beginning to turn up at the buy signal, but they increase rapidly shortly thereafter as confirmation.

Exit strategy

Gains of 100% or more are quite common using this trading strategy, although gains of 30% to 70% occur more frequently. Losses also happen and can exceed 20%. You should expect that trades will last weeks, months, or longer.

Always use a trailing stop loss. The stop loss should be set so that as a stock moves through the Stage 3 distribution stage into Stage 4 mark down you will exit the position. The most common places for a trailing stop loss are at the previous support, or at the 150-day moving average. I find that previous support typically works better, even though your stop will be at an obvious place for stop hunters or wicks to take you out. Sometimes I will sell half my position at 100% profit, free carrying the rest with a trailing stop. If the breakout fails, then a stop loss will take you out of the trade.

Setting a stop loss forces you to consciously identify a level where your thesis for entering the trade is wrong and/or the prevailing trend is broken. Too many retail traders have no idea at what point their thesis is broken; so when the price moves against them they just hold on praying to whatever their god is that one day their bag will recover. I will say it again. Always use a trailing stop loss.

The MEK chart shows two potential sell zones. The first one would have been triggered if you were using the 150-day moving average for your trailing stop loss -- a ~150% gain. A trailing stop loss based on support and resistance may have got you slightly higher, but using either of these exit strategies it is unlikely that you would have held until the second sell signal. Even so, you have to be happy with an easy 150% gain!

Further information

The above is just an intro, but start looking at stocks making 12-month highs and looking at charts through the stage analysis lens. It will change the way that you look at a price chart. It will also stop you from buying dips that keep on dipping.

Stan Weinstein’s book, Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets, is a great place to start exploring this style of trading. Mark Minervini uses some similar concepts and I am currently reading his book, Trade like a Stock Market Wizard.

Are there other similar momentum trading strategies out there? I am always interested to learn.

I am no expert and this is not financial advice. Keep it green.

Change log

I decided to update this original post, rather than creating a new post when I want to make changes.

15/10/26 -- Updated stop loss information re the importance of identifying when your thesis is broken.

Disclosure (rule 7): I run DilutionLens, free site tracking dilution off ASX filings. One-off, not the weekly post. No links, not advice.

Someone asked under last week's out-of-cash list for the opposite, so here it is. Gold-first explorers and developers (no producers) where the June quarter 5B says 8+ quarters of funding at the current spend, at least $3m in the bank, and no cash raise since 30 June. Sorted by cash against market cap.

"Own runway" is the company's own number from the 5B (item 8.7). Mcap is as of 5 Oct.

Cash bigger than the market cap usually has a story, and these do:

• IDA: what's left of the Tanzania settlement, after a $32.2m capital return. Its UK sub is facing an arbitration claim from another shareholder, hearing in December.
• BNR: also holds about $6m of Matsa and Auris shares on top of the cash.
• LCL: the cash is the $7.5m sale of its Colombian assets.

Two where the runway number flatters them: TAM's JV signed a ~$38m decline contract in August, and VAL is ramping up the Comet restart. The June quarter spend won't last at either.

Left out: VMC (paying most of its cash out as a $35m special dividend), DGR and KRM (not really gold), 10X (zinc-lead first).

Sep quarter 5Bs are due 31 Oct, so these are 3+ months old. I'll check back once they're in and see who's still sitting on it.

Your markets are run by bots. Now your Weekend threads are too.

Read the wiki people.

Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.

Your markets are run by bots. Now your r/Asx_bets daily threads are too.

Read the wiki people.

Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting.

We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.