Hi all. I've been building a small dashboard that pulls the public data on Kīlauea's summit fountaining episodes into one place:
**https://fountain.fly.dev\*\*
It is a personal project and **not** a USGS product or forecast. For anything hazard-related, please follow HVO.
**Thank you to the people who make this data public**
None of this exists without the work of the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory: the tiltmeters and seismometers, the daily updates, the episode table and the tilt data releases. Earthquakes come from the USGS ComCat catalog, HVO's seismic waveforms are distributed by the NSF-supported EarthScope data center, and the thermal detections are from NASA FIRMS. I'm just rearranging what these agencies collect and share freely. Any mistakes are mine, not theirs.
**What's on it**
- Summit tilt (UWD), from the USGS data release where it exists and from HVO's public tilt plots for recent weeks
- Seismic tremor near the caldera, computed from the public waveforms
- Earthquakes, HVO notices, and the episode table (54 fountaining episodes since Dec 23, 2024)
- Satellite thermal detections and summit weather, for context
Each chart shows which source supplied each stretch of data, and real gaps are shown as gaps instead of being filled in.
**The experimental part**
There is also a simple statistical model estimating the probability that a fountaining episode starts in the next 12 hours, from time since the last episode, how much the summit has re-inflated, the tilt rate, tremor, summit earthquakes, and whether HVO's latest update mentions precursory activity. It is refitted monthly, and every probability on the chart comes from a model that had only seen earlier data. On completed cycles from July 2025 to August 2026 it did reasonably well for something this simple.
**Why you should be skeptical of it right now**
This is a strange period, well outside anything the model learned from:
- It has been about 46 days since episode 54 ended. The longest earlier pause was about 30 days.
- In mid-September new vents opened and erupted lava flows without fountaining.
- Around Oct 1–2 there was an intrusion, and summit tilt stepped up by roughly 65 microradians. Tilt is now far above the level at any previous onset.
The model handled this badly. Through the back half of September it sat above 50% for weeks and no fountaining episode came. It now reads around 4%, mostly because the October refit learned from being wrong, not because it understands what the volcano is doing. The dashboard carries a caution box saying the same. Please treat the number as a curiosity, not a forecast; the data panels are the more useful part at the moment.
**Feedback and support**
I'm sure there are mistakes and things I've misunderstood, so corrections and ideas are very welcome.
The site is free and will stay that way. Running the server does cost money, so if you find it useful there is a Ko-fi button at the top of the page.