This is the weekly thread. It's for wide ranging discussions in the comments. Do you have a question or comment, but don't want to make a separate post for it? This is the place.
This is for anyone who set foot on the Pacific Crest Trail in 2026. It does not matter if you were a thru-hiker, section hiker, or even if you ended your hike early.
Hi , I completed a dexa scan 1 month before starting the trail and 2.5 weeks post trail. I'll share some of the results as I was looking for this information before starting and found very little info on it. Ask any questions !
Reference: 30s female at 5 ft started around 130 lbs . I hiked the trail minus snoqualmie to stehekin for fire closure in 161 days l. I did not follow any certain diet on trail and ate based off what I felt like eating (did not try to hit any macros or calories for the day). I Indulged in many town burgers and beer 🍺
There have been several comments and posts this morning and afternoon from people who don't understand why the permit application page says applications are not available.
What is available as of 10:30 am Pacific today is registration, which is the process of creating the account that is later used to apply for a permit on permit release day one, two, or afterwards.
The long distance permit application system involves multiple steps: register, apply, receive confirmation email, download the permit. If you want to understand, take ten minutes to do the reading, or watch the PCTA video (~20 minutes at 1x), or read one of the summaries that have been posted to the subreddit in the past few weeks. No one can do it for you.
Application process timeline for 2027 LD permits, which was announced by PCTA in July:
October 15 at 10:30 AM Pacific Time through October 22 at 3 PM Pacific Time: 1st registration period
November 4: 1st Permit Release Day ("PRD1"). This is the day when you use your registered account to complete and submit an application. Normally only permits for starts at Campo (the southern terminus) are available on PRD1.
November 5 at 10:30 AM through December 11 at 3 PM Pacific Time: 2nd registration period
January 13: 2nd Permit Release Day. Same process as Permit Release Day 1. Includes Campo starts and all other start locations, including sobos.
January 14 at 10:30 AM: registration and application reopen
As the title suggests, I’m studying what workouts/activities everyone here did in preparation for their thru hikes, whether it be to prepare for long miles, the pack, or strengthening tendons. And which ones you believe were the most beneficial to your success?
tl;dr: Create an account by clicking the "Register" button on https://permit.pcta.org beginning 10/15/26 10:30 am Pacific time.
Registration is the first step in the permit application process. It's free, takes about two minutes, and is similar to creating an account on any website.
There is a limit to the quantity of permits that will be issued in any given year, but there is no limit to how many people can register for the application system. As long as you register at some point before the end of the registration window for your intended permit release day (eg PRD 1, 2, or after) you'll be fine, there is no risk of all the registrations being consumed. Once you register, that account is valid for the rest of the application season, there is no need to re-register for each PRD.
October 15 at 10:30 AM Pacific Time through October 22 at 3 PM Pacific Time: 1st registration period
November 4: 1st Permit Release Day ("PRD1"). This is the day when you use your registered account to complete and submit an application. Normally only permits for Campo (the southern terminus) starts are available on PRD1.
November 5 at 10:30 AM through December 11 at 3 PM Pacific Time: 2nd registration period
January 13: 2nd Permit Release Day. Same process as Permit Release Day 1. Includes Campo starts and all other start locations, including sobos.
January 14 at 10:30 AM: registration and application reopen
More information:
Authoritative source for all things related to the PCT thruhike permit: https://permit.pcta.org
The thruhike permit application system is moderately involved and can be confusing to newcomers. Feel free to ask any questions you may have, there are several people here on the subreddit who can answer, though it's important to remember that this is the internet and not every answer will necessarily be correct. The information on https://permit.pcta.org is the primary source. Links to a variety of helpful resources are available in the r/PacificCrestTrail sidebar.
My son and I want to hike the PCT NOBO this coming summer, but we can't start the hike until ~June 1st when he graduates high-school. So our plan is to start at Kennedy Meadows and continue north from there.
I'm trying to confirm what permits we need to make this trip work. I *think* the strategy is:
1) Obtain a local permit from the Inyo Nat'l Forest to enter the trail at Kennedy Meadows and hike through to Sonora Pass.
2) Obtain a PCTA long-distance permit starting at Sonora Pass, continuing northbound.
Does anyone here know definitively whether this would work?
IIUC, the PCTA long-distance permits are for a specific start date & location, so does that mean we'd have to time our arrival at Sonora Pass to specifically hit our start day (within a day or two, I suppose during which we could hang out at Sonora Pass)?
tl;dr: I’ve looked at hiker comments across the PCT to assess hiker trends. According to the PCTA, around 4,500 hikers are issued permits to start the PCT every year. Only around half of all hikers that start the trail complete the trail in a given year. I estimate that there’s around 200-700 flip-floppers and skippers across sections. This post is an overall summary of key bits of analysis, which I think folks other than myself may also find interesting!
Data Summary
I went ahead and gathered hiker comment data over time. This gives me a log of comments recorded based on trail miles, dates, and unique hiker identifiers. This data set can allow for some interesting analysis that lets you pool statistical relationships together, to estimate different things about the trail!
All PCT comments over time stacked. The NOBO and SOBO trends and intensity of commenting are clearly visible in parts, but get muddled together during the middle of the trail due to skipping and flipping. The CDT has a much clearer trend.
Where’s the Bubble?
I used a variety of methods to estimate the bubble. This included 1) looking at the pace of hiking, by sampling hikers that made comments on consecutive days, and calculating the distance in miles between those consecutive comments, and 2) looking at the date distribution for comment density as you progress up the trail (different comment dates create the shape of hiker distribution for a given mile). This table is a rough estimate for the expected median date where the bubble might be at any mile in an average year on the PCT, based on the northbound median comment date.
Mile
Expected Median Date for Bubble
40
14-Apr
540
20-May
1,040
5-Jul
1,540
23-Jul
2,040
11-Aug
2,540
4-Sep
Estimating where hikers are, over time, on the PCT
How does snow impact the bubble
I used NOAA SNODAS data, and pooled different Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) estimates on April 1st to provide an estimated SWE prediction relative to the average SWE for each section in an average year. I incorporated the SWE ratio value to see if this would improve the model's ability to predict a median date for each relevant section compared to the model without the SWE data. I found that snow data had an effect for a few sections of the PCT. The table below shows how much snowpack impacts the median for the 5 relevant sections of trail where it was found to meaningfully improve the model. The results suggest that for a big snow year, the hiker bubble seems to be delayed by around 2 to 4 days relative to an "average" year.
Stretch
Median-of-other-years error
With snowpack
Days of delay estimate per doubling of snowpack
PCT, mile 700 (8 hiking years)
6.5
4.7 (better)
+3.7
PCT, mile 800 (8 hiking years)
8.1
6.3 (better)
+3.6
PCT, mile 1,000 (8 hiking years)
11.3
7.4 (better)
+3.5
PCT, mile 1,100 (8 hiking years)
6.8
5.6 (better)
+3.8
PCT, mile 1,200 (8 hiking years)
4.9
3.9 (better)
+2.2
How many folks skip and flip, and where to?
Because I can estimate the standard hiking pace for hikers, I can look at the median distribution in one part of the trail, and estimate what the distribution should look like further up the trail by using the standard hiking pace. Additionally, as a check, I can also look at how the median distribution of comments moves from one section of trail to another, and look at the time between those two medians, and the number of miles, to estimate how quickly the bubble had to move to exhibit that sort of behavior. For areas of trail where the hiker distribution seems to deviate from the statistically-likely appearance, we have good reason to believe skipping or flipping may be occurring. The table below estimates the number of hikers that flip or skip to a different section of the trail based on conditions in prior sections of trail. The comment data reflects high likelihood of skipping and flipping from the Sierra to Truckee and Lassen in Northern California, and also from Etna toward the Oregon border.
Stretch
Median date at the near mile (A)
Median date expected at the far mile (B)
Median date actually seen at B
Days ahead of the expected bubble
Extra people ahead of the crowd (area)
Share needed to cross the median to explain the shift
Rough number of flip-floppers per hiking year
PCT, Truckee to Drakesbad (miles 1,150 to 1,350)
Jul 10
Jul 21
Jul 11
10
15%
20%
190 to 510
PCT, Etna to Callahans Lodge (miles 1,550 to 1,750)
Jul 21
Jul 31
Jul 26
5
7%
9%
20 to 210
How many people injure off/leave the trail?
To estimate the number of people dropping from trail, I look at the commenters and the frequency of their commenting behavior. Significant changes in their commenting behavior over time (goes from commenting a lot to having no more comments), is a good indicator that something happened (e.g. they injured off trail, or had a serious illness).
To estimate the highest likely rate of attrition, I took everyone who commented near the start of the trail. This population is established by creating a cohort for the northbound-looking people with a comment in the first 60 miles. If a person has a comment at or beyond a certain mile, that person is still considered to be “on trail” and hiking. Someone who never comments again is considered to have left the trail. As such, this bound overestimates attrition.
To estimate a conservative rate of attrition, I looked at a cohort of frequent commenters. This cohort consists of people with at least six comment-days and a typical gap of four days or less between comments across the trail. If one of these “frequent commenters” goes quiet, it implies something changed. This is likely to be indicative of an actual attrition event. Because hikers in this cohort had to be hiking long enough to write six times with gaps of less than 4 days between those comments, this is a conservative estimate of attrition. As such, this metric underestimates the number of people leaving the trail. The table below estimates the likely range of people staying on trail relative to those that initially started.
Trail, mile
Survivor Rate (people that ever commented)
Survivor Rate (frequent commenters)
PCT, mile 300
83%
96%
PCT, mile 500
77%
91%
PCT, mile 1,000
66%
81%
PCT, mile 1,500
58%
72%
PCT, mile 2,000
48%
64%
PCT, mile 2,400
33%
57%
Probable upper and lower bounds for PCT hiker attrition
There is a lot more analysis and discussion available on my very, very long blog post about it. The web tool is much easier to use to give you a quick snapshot of "where is the bubble?" and to estimate how many people might be ahead of or behind you at any given point on trail.
Generative AI Disclosure: the front-end tool I created to explore bubble trends was built largely with the help of generative AI. The underlying data is actual hiking data that were not generated. Any errors or inaccuracies are primarily the result of data quality and suitability of the analysis methods used. The methodology is repeatable and consistent, and several analytical approaches were conducted to assess statistical robustness. All writing was done by me. GenAI was used to help with formatting, graphing, and organizing of the main blog post.
My partner and I fell in love with thruhiking this last year after doing a month long adventure on a shorter trail. We want to take on a longer trail next year! We have been discussing the PCT because it sounds like a beautiful trail and neither of us have been in the PNW.
I know the ideal start dates are around mid April - mid May. We were invited to two weddings, one May 8 and one June 19, both on the east coast. These are weddings we are not comfortable missing since they are close friends & close family.
I have some ideas for how it could shake out, but I wanted to maybe see if folks who have done the trail have insights or ideas.
Here are two plans we are tossing around:
Start in late March / early April and get off a few weeks in for the first wedding, aim for somewhere near LA and hop off at or before then. Come back maybe like five days later, and hike for about six more weeks, maybe into Yosemite. Hop off where makes sense, come back like five days later, and then hike the rest of the trail. Early start allows for more flexibility down the line, but doing the rodeo twice sounds like a lot (financially, emotionally, logistically). The unpredictability of where we'll be when also makes it hard to schedule where we could get off for the second wedding.
Start after the first wedding in mid May. Hike for about six more weeks. Hop off where makes sense, likely between LA and Kennedy Meadows. Come back maybe like five days later, and then hop back on where we got off. Book it and take less zero day so we can reach the Cascades before it gets too wintry.
I see upsides and downsides to both, regardless we will be having to get off trail ~6 or less weeks in to go to one of these weddings. How difficult is it to get off trail ~6 weeks in and get to an airport?
I guess what I am looking for is what would you do in this situation?
Would another trail make sense with our window - I know CDT NOBO and AT NOBO can start as early as March? My partner seems most enthused by the PCT NOBO, whereas I'm just excited to get on any of the triple crown trails.
Should we PCT SOBO after these weddings (I don't know if we can wait until July emotionally, haha)?
Thank you kindly for your thoughts and help. Happy trails!
Some background on me: I have hiked alone in the Canadian Rockies, without encountering humans for a week or more, and loved the solitude. Conversely, I also did the 4 day Inca trail with 400 or 500 permits a day, including 60% porters and although I enjoyed it very much, I found the social aspect taxing. I stayed in campgrounds with dozens of tents where I would hear people talk late at night or, worse, snore throughout the night. Basically, although I do not consider myself completely antisocial, I prefer to limit the social interactions on a trail.
I was quick to conclude that it would have to be SoBo (planning on '28), but then I realised that SoBo I would have to rush from the get-go and I'm also not confident that my fitness level is going to allow me to do 20+ miles a day in mountainous terrain from day one.
I guess my question is: how busy it NoBo hiking really?
EDIT. Thank you for your helpful answers. I understand now that I will be able to mostly hike by myself if I choose to and can ensure quiet nights by being a bit more creative finding camp sites. Very helpful indeed!
This has been posted in the /socalhiking subreddit already, but thought I’d share here as well. His family thinks he could have gone towards the PCT. He is a highly experienced solo backpacker who frequents the PCT. If you have any information, PLEASE call the number on the flyer.
I recently completed the JMT and had the same issue I've faced after other long hikes - how to (re)find the people I met along the way. There are people I met on the AT years ago that I only knew by trail name. I assume other hikers have the same challenge, so I put together a simple searchable directory to help solve it - https://trailnames.club/ . It's free and open source (github.com/MrRee/trail-names), no ads, emails remain hidden, and I'm hoping it helps with reconnection. Feedback is appreciated, and if you have a trail name please add it. Right now there are just some dummy names in there so people can see how it works with search etc., but I'd really love some legitimate entries to get it going. Thank you!
Hi, my friend and I are going to be registering on the 15 and we were wondering if it’s going to be hard to get a spot like getting shoes from a shoe drop lol
I’ll keep this short, I’m planning for the PCT in 2027, and as much as I am doing it for myself and it’s been a dream and something I been daydreaming about for a while. I’m considering also doing it for a humanitarian cause that is close to me and to help with fundraising. Ideally vlogging everything on my Instagram and spreading the word more about the cause along with the beauty of the PCT itself.
My question is, is this something popular that people do on the trail? As people who did the PCT, what do you think of it generally? Is it “acceptable “ by the people on trails/towns?
Not that I’d care about everyone’s opinions generally or be talking about it with everyone I meet.. but just genuinely curious
To be clear on somethings:
1-I’ll be funding my trip with my own money
2- I’ll not receive any direct donation and I’ll be listing the official charity organisation where people donate to them directly on my instagram
3- I’ll not be even be accepting any donation from people who wanna help me out personaly with the trip
Hi fellow stinky hikers! I’m planning to do the PCT in 2027. I’ve done a lot of research but want your opinions. Been hiking for years, did multiple 1–2 night backpacking trips but I need to start doing longer trips and properly test my gear over the next few months.
Here’s what I currently have and collected over the past years. I’d love feedback from people who have actually done the PCT or have solid thru-hiking experience. especially what you’d keep, replace, or leave at home.
For reference, I’m a 32 Male, 5’11, 210 lb Backpack
Hyperlite Mountain Gear — Southwest 55L pack
Hiking poles
Black Diamond — Trail Back Trekking Poles
Footwear
-Currently use hiking boots, but need trail runners. Which brands do you recommend and worked best for you?
-Merino wool socks, what have been your favorites on trail?
-Camp shoes/slippers, or did you raw dog it with your trail runners?
Sleeping system
NEMO — Tensor All-Seasons Ultralight Insulated Sleeping Pad — 1 lb 3 oz
NEMO — Pulse 20/30 Endless Promise Ultralight Quilt — 1 lb 5 oz
NEMO — Fillo Elite Wide Pillow — ~4 oz
Tent
Currently have the North Face Windbreaker. Definitely not for the PCT. Which tent did you use/recommend? I’m getting lost in this rabbit hole.
Cooking
Soto Amicus Stove Cookset Combo — 11.2 oz
TOAKS — Titanium Long Handle Spork
I have some collapsible bowls and plates. Not really sure if I’d need them. Any other cooking tools you’d recommend?
Layers
-Prana Stretch Zion Standard Pants — will need shorts
-Mountain Hardwear Crater Lake sun hoody — 4.2 oz
-REI Merino 185 Long Sleeve Base Layer
-Merino 185 Base Layer Bottoms - Men's
-North Face TKA Glacier Full-Zip Jacket Fleece — 9.2 oz
-REI Rainier Rain Jacket — 11.3 oz
-Arc’teryx Cerium Down Hoody buff — 11.9 oz
Water filter
-Katadyn BeFree 1L Lightweight Collapsible Water Bottle
Which filtration system worked best for you on trail?
-2x 28 mm Vesica 1 L Collapsible Water Bottle - 32 fl. oz.
Electronics
-Nitecore NU20 Classic 360 Lumen USB-C Lightweight headlamp
-Nitecore NB10000 Power Bank
-Flextail - TINY PUMP 2X
-Garmin inReach — on my list and planning to buy soon
-For watches, which worked best for you, especially for battery life?
Others
- Chicken Tramper WATER BOTTLE SLEEVE
-Sea to Summit Mosquito Head Net — 1.3 oz
-Kahtoola Microspikes Traction System — 11 oz (for the Sierra Nevada?)
-BUFF Merino Heavyweight Neck Warmer
-REI Flash Wool Gloves
-Aluminum Trowel
I have the smaller stuff covered (toiletries, medical, repair kit, etc.), but please mention anything important small or big that you think I’m missing or anything here you’d personally ditch or swap
I did a thru of the AT in 2016, when digital apps were just coming onto the scene, and used this book to great success (I like taking notes and having ephemera). I’ve now moved to the west coast and would like to section hike the PCT, and am looking for a similar book. Does it exist, or is everyone so digital there’s no world for an analogue version anymore? Thanks!
This is the weekly thread. It's for wide ranging discussions in the comments. Do you have a question or comment, but don't want to make a separate post for it? This is the place.
I'm the creator of pct-tracker.com, a free open source platform to share your pct adventure with friends and family, in a non instagram, non photo heavy medium.
I launched the app last year, and am super happy with the usage it's gotten. With the hiking season mostly over I'm looking to spend the off season to improve it.
Here are some stats from 2025:
- 57 hikers signed up
- 114 "update" posts were made
- 37 hikers opted in for automatic strava syncing
I've got some improvements in mind for next year, but I'd still I'd love some feedback to make it better for next season. You can message me on reddit, or leave a comment here.
What did you wish was there, or what didn't work very well for you? I'd love to know.
Here are my previous two posts about the platform if you'd like to learn more about it:
I plan to save up to do the PCT in April of '28 NoBo. I am wondering if I should start the PCT later because there might be too much built up snow from the previous year's El Nino. I have also heard to make it to the Sierras by early May for safety reasons, as it the snowmelt is usually over by then. Does that sound correct to you guys? (Also, do we think El Nino is going to bring more water to the desert parts?)
I know its probably a little too early to know what the conditions are going to be like in the next year or so with climate change. I guess I am trying to figure out if going in 2027 might be better than 2028.
TLDR: Does anyone have any guesses about the PCT conditions this next year or so given El Nino? Thanks a plenty!!
Looking to do a NoBo hike this summer, but due to school constraints I won’t be able to start until June 15. I have most of December off, and am toying with the idea of knocking out as much of the desert as possible then. I understand that essentially Jacinto to Agua Dulce is considered a no-go in winter, but I am very fit and fairly confident in snow travel (Whitney MR in early spring, Shasta in winter, winter backpacking in lower sierras, etc). Is trucking straight through with winter gear for miles 0-560 a viable strategy, or would I be better off dealing with the headaches of hitchhiking between the lower basins this winter and then the mountains during my hike this summer, rather than just splitting things in two? Thank you for your advice and time.