Across the last six completed League Two seasons, the club finishing 22nd ended up with between 40 and 49 points.
Here's the comparison with the highest-placed relegated club. Each season links to its final table.
| Season / source |
22nd: last safe club |
Points |
23rd: relegated club |
Points |
| 2020/21 |
Scunthorpe United |
48 |
Southend United |
45 |
| 2021/22 |
Barrow |
44 |
Oldham Athletic |
38 |
| 2022/23 |
Crawley Town |
46 |
Hartlepool United |
43 |
| 2023/24 |
Colchester United |
45 |
Sutton United |
42 |
| 2024/25 |
Newport County |
49 |
Carlisle United |
42 |
| 2025/26 |
Crawley Town |
40 |
Harrogate Town |
39 |
These are actual finishing totals, not guaranteed survival targets. Newport finished with 49 in 2024/25, for example, while Carlisle in 23rd had 42. That doesn't mean 49 was the minimum needed to stay up. Points ties can also bring goal difference into play.
All six were completed 46-match seasons. The figures use published final standings, including points adjustments. The curtailed 2019/20 season is excluded.
Disclosure: I run Football Charts. I've put the historical comparison alongside a free League Two points calculator. You can choose a club and a final points total to explore the current model estimate; it's a forecast, not a guarantee. No signup required. Shared with moderator permission.
What points total would you feel comfortable with for your club this season?