I'm not just talking about 10-20 years from now, it's already happening. As high school graduating class of 2030, there's a pretty big brain drain that I foresee will happen over the course of 2-3 years. I just don't see current freshmen/sophomores, in my high school at least, meeting the standards that were set years before them (and it's not only ivy league applications, it's in general). Clubs that used to be brimming with talent such as Math and Robotics are now having much trouble passing on that knowledge, and face loss of engagement, in 2 years time, they will cease to exist. But who knows, maybe my perception is skewed. Opportunities will either become scarcer or less competitive, which is bad in the long run for college apps.
Sure, college admissions is mostly relative based on peer vs peer performance, but the above means that talent will be clustered at the most cutthroat schools (e.g. Stuyvesant, in my case of Fairfax TJ), and the rest will be left to...
Sure, there are some talents here and their, big fish in a small pond, but these are few and far apart, will struggle to find significance in leadership and recognition.
Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm just underestimating the potential of what the youth of today can become. I'm debating whether or not I should (re)apply to TJ or stick with my base school. It's a gamble either way. Current seniors/college freshmen, how did you view high school underclassmen compared to your generation at the time? Would like to know.