I’m running the NYC Marathon as my first marathon and I’m so excited! The question of what pace I can expect to run has come up and I need some help.
First of all, I know that having fun and just finishing is the most important. But —
The TLDR is I thought I was on track to go out at a pace that would get me a 4:40-4:45 finish, but I’ve been running my long runs slower than that (on purpose) and I haven’t been doing “marathon pace” speedwork. I thought that was normal for a first time training plan and would still be expected to run the race at a bit of a faster pace than the long runs but now I’m hearing mixed things and I’m confused.
For some more information, I’m 31F and I’ve been running for a little over 2 years. My most recent half was back in March and I finished in 2:09. Since that half I did a Hal Higdon Intermediate Base building plan that had me running 25-28mpw with speedwork, took a small cutback this summer with some minor tendon issues (worked with a PT) and then I started my marathon training plan.
I’ve been using the Every Women’s Marathon Beginner plan that has average weekly mileage of around 30, and I peaked at 44mpw. It has 5 runs a week and I’ve been following the plan pretty much perfectly. I’ve also been doing strength training twice a week (prescribed by my PT) and a pilates class.
My running plan calls for easy paced runs pretty exclusively, with some weekly strides, but no dedicated speed sessions. I participated in a 10 mile race 5 weeks ago that I ended up running a little faster than MP, and I have added in some faster miles at the end of most of my long runs, but didn’t do any dedicated “marathon pace work”. I’ve been running the long runs at a truly easy, conversational pace, which has put me at 11:30min/miles. At the end of my 20 miler which was in less than ideal conditions (heavy rain through most of it and I had a minor cold) I felt really good, like I could even run the 26.2 that day no problem. I recovered really well, no soreness, and I could’ve run the next day easily.
I really wanted to try to race this at 10:45-11min mile pace and thought that seemed realistic given all of my stats, but I’ve recently gotten feedback on some first time marathon forums that I shouldn’t expect to run any faster than my conversational pace because that’s all I’ve been training. Now I feel kind of disappointed that I didn’t go harder during training.
I understand that I haven’t run 26 miles ever and that feeling so confident after that 20 mile run doesn’t actually guarantee anything, but I thought it would still make sense to run the race at least a little faster than my training runs.
I’ll add as well that due to some personal things coming up I won’t be able to train for another marathon at least until 2028 so I’m really trying to make the most of this effort.